ESPN's FPI predicts every game on Oregon's 2023 schedule
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has the Oregon Ducks ranked 13th in the country entering the 2023 season.
That’s slightly higher than where the Ducks sit in the AP media poll and it’s good for second in the Pac-12. USC is a preseason top-10 squad in FPI. But the predictive model differs from human pollsters on the rest of the league’s upper half. Utah is behind Oregon, at No. 15. Washington — a preseason AP Top 10 team — is way back at No. 21. Oregon State is at No. 24.
FPI values consistency and recruiting prowess in the preseason. Oregon checks both those boxes nicely. And with an elite quarterback, running back, and wide receiver returning to power the offense, production isn’t an issue.
The model is predicting Oregon to go 9-3 this fall. In the preseason, it views the Ducks as 15 points better than the average college football team on a neutral field.
Oregon is viewed as the second-most likely Pac-12 champion, behind USC. And FPI gives the Ducks a 7.5% chance to make the College Football Playoff.
In Dan Lanning’s first season at the helm, Oregon won 10 games, so you can bet the Ducks will be looking to build on that number in Year 2. But a 9-3 mark might not necessarily signal regression. The Pac-12 is expected to be highly competitive at the top. Oregon has to play Washington and Utah on the road — programs that have been some of the best in the conference when playing at home in recent years — and it has to face USC in the regular season.
But FPI views the Ducks as favorites in 10 of their 12 regular-season games.
This data will start to change once the ball gets kicked off for the first time, but as it stands now, here’s how FPI views the Ducks’ chances in every game on the 2023 schedule:
- Sept. 2 vs. Portland State — 99.0% chance to win
- Sept. 9 at Texas Tech — 51.0%
- Sept. 16 vs. Hawaii — 96.4%
- Sept. 23 vs. Colorado — 94.2%
- Sept. 30 at Stanford — 82.8%
- Oct. 14 at Washington — 51.7%
- Oct. 21 vs. Washington State — 86.9%
- Oct. 28 at Utah — 40.8%
- Nov. 4 vs. Cal — 81.3%
- Nov. 11 vs. USC — 46.0%
- Nov. 18 at Arizona State — 78.3%
- Nov. 24 vs. Oregon State — 65.9%