Bill Connelly’s SP+ believes Utah will win the Las Vegas Bowl on Saturday.

The predictive model has the Utes beating Northwestern 27-17 inside Allegiant Stadium. It gives the Wildcats a 29% chance to win the game. A win for the Utes would give the program its first bowl victory since 2017 when it beat West Virginia to win the Heart of Dallas Bowl.

Utah (8-4) is looking to close out a challenging 2023 campaign. The program went through the entire season without Cam Rising and Brant Kuithe on the offensive side of the ball, and dealt with constant injuries that took players in and out of the lineup with frustrating frequency.

Against Northwestern (7-5), Utah will face a program that wasn’t expected to be here. The Wildcats fired longtime coach Pat Fitzgerald amid controversy before the season started, and few thought a winning season was in the cards. Northwestern won four of its last five games to reach the postseason.

Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. PT on ABC.