Crazy to think this could all end up being Abe Lincoln’s fault. If you’re an Oregon State or Washington State fan, anyway.

Back in 1862, Honest Abe signed the Morrill Land-Grant Act, paving the way for non-rebellious states to create colleges dedicated to the study of agriculture.

Michigan State was the first of these institutions to open, and many followed in the ensuing decades — Illinois, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue and Wisconsin, for example.

Way out west, Oregon State and Washington State were founded as land-grant institutions. Given the times, teaching young Oregonians and Washingtonians how to cultivate the land made more sense than any other pursuit. This was the frontier.

Even as the economies of those states changed, the campuses in Corvallis and Pullman remained a reflection of their original intent. It is their purpose. They are off the grid by necessity.

And in 2023, both schools stand on the brink of paying a steep price for fulfilling the obligation Abraham Lincoln granted to them.

As the Big 12 and Big Ten ready their knives for the feast of the Pac-12 pig roast, Oregon State and Washington State are the 2 schools guaranteed to be left hanging in the abyss.

Unless, of course, the grown-ups in the room figure out a way to keep that conference alive. So far, not-so-good.

Doing so would require those grown-ups to recognize the common good of having a West Coast conference creates intrinsic value on the West Coast. And when it comes to intrinsic value versus tens of millions of dollars, we all know which side is going to win.

Nonetheless, Big Ten presidents appear to be playing their cards the right way as their long-time Rose Bowl partner approaches its destruction.

Let the situation play out, and only act if necessary.

It’s time to be a vulture, not a raptor

On Wednesday, Yahoo Sports columnist Dan Wetzel reported that Big Ten presidents are in “preliminary discussions” over adding Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford to the conference.

If they wanted to accelerate those talks into a hostile takeover, they could. All 4 schools would likely jump at the lifeline without hesitation.

But there’s a catch.

It’s painfully obvious how joining the B1G would benefit those programs. What’s decidedly less clear is how they would strengthen the B1G.

We still don’t have definitive proof of whether a 16-team coast-to-coast conference will prove a viable entity, much less a 20-team version.

There have been 2 previous attempts at a 16-team conference in college sports history. Neither was long for this world.

After the collapse of the Southwest Conference, the Western Athletic Conference ballooned to 16 schools. The arrangement lasted all of 2 years before 8 of those schools siphoned off to form the Mountain West.

The Big East attempted to function as a 16-team conference from 2006-12 before also devolving into a hot mess.

The Big Ten and SEC are playing with fire in their 16-team expansions, though in theory they’ll make enough money from TV contracts to put out those fires.

Really, what does the B1G look like as a 20-team conference? There seems no way of making it a practical entity.

Do you create 2 10-team divisions? Quadrants of 5 teams? How do you structure conference tournaments? Would a basketball schedule consist of a home-and-home with 1 assigned rival while playing every other team once over 20 games?

Having an entire wing of West Coast schools would clearly benefit USC and UCLA, but how would it behoove anyone else in the conference?

The answer, of course, is only if the money’s right.

But the B1G’s media deal is signed. It runs through 2030. And there’s no guarantee adding 4 schools would entice the networks to dole out more money. They have no obligation to do so.

If the new schools only serve to cut into the already agreed-upon shares of the other 16 members, it makes no sense to add them. Hence, there’s no need for the B1G to be the aggressor here.

But there is a need for due diligence, which is what we are seeing. The Big Ten needs to figure out whether it’s better off with or without the Pac-12’s potential survivors.

At the moment, the Big 12 is the conference holding the cards. Like hawks, they could strike on Arizona, Arizona State and Utah and bring the Pac-12 to its knees. The leaders at those schools will determine the future of college athletics.

The most sensible solution? Utah, and only Utah, defects to the Big 12 to put that league at 14 schools. It’s more natural for the Utes to be paired with BYU and Colorado than anyone in the Pac-12.

The remaining 8 Pac-12 schools would then find the best 2 or 4 remaining fits to keep that league viable.

It’s not a great solution, but it would be a sensible one compared to Cal playing conference games at Rutgers. Or any variation of conference scheduling that has to account for 20 teams.

There’s little reason to be optimistic that things will play out in that manner. The biggest money will win. And as always, that guarantees somebody will lose.

For now, the losers will be Oregon State and Washington State, just as UConn was a decade ago. But if the churn of realignment never stops, no like-minded institution is ever safe from becoming next.