Ranking the Top 25 QBs in college football in 2023
Quarterbacks: There are a lot of them! Here’s our preseason countdown of the Top 25 QBs in college football in 2023, ranked by highly scientific processes and/or pure gut-level instinct.
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25. Cade Klubnik, Clemson
Many Clemson fans spent the 2022 season openly pining for Klubnik, the gem of the Tigers’ freshman class, to replace embattled starter DJ Uiagalelei. Having finally gotten their wish, many of those same fans spent the offseason preaching the virtues of patience. After a handful of spot appearances throughout the year, Klubnik made his move in the ACC Championship Game, seizing the reins for good in the first half of an eventual blowout win over North Carolina. But his first start, a 31-14 loss to Tennessee in the Orange Bowl, was a wake-up call: Opposite a blitz-happy SEC defense on a big stage, Klubnik was sacked 4 times, picked twice and generally looked not quite ready for primetime.
Still, while he was just a freshman, there is no doubt about Klubnik’s status as QB1 as a sophomore (Uiagalelei portaled out immediately after getting benched, to Oregon State), or the fact that Clemson’s Playoff fate rests largely on his gifted right arm. In contrast to the towering pocket gods who have manned the position the past 5 years, Klubnik is on the lighter side, and more reliant on his mobility, accuracy and decision-making. Once the latter catches up to big-game speed, the Tigers will find out what they really have.
24. Tanner Mordecai, Wisconsin
How seriously are we taking this Air Raid business? By all accounts, the Badgers are really going for it. New coach Luke Fickell came up on the defensive side of the ball, but he hired an Air Raid offensive coordinator (Phil Longo, most recently at North Carolina), landed a veteran Air Raid quarterback in the portal (Mordecai, from SMU), and added a couple of younger Air Raid QBs from Oklahoma and Mississippi State, respectively, to groom for the future.
They were all-in on Longo’s system in the spring, and subsequently added to their haul of incoming transfers at wide receiver. All duly acknowledged. Personally, I’ll believe it when see it with my own two eyes, and even then I might give it another decade or two to really sink in. We are talking about Wisconsin. A program that has set the old-school tone for the entire Big Ten West, and which as recently as last year still employed a full-time fullback. Badgers football is so synonymous with trench warfare tactics held over from the last century that updating the playbook seems roughly akin to changing the state flag or, like, banning cows.
If they are actually determined to go through with it, they made a sound investment in Mordecai, a sixth-year vet with 24 starts and 72 touchdown passes over the past 2 seasons at SMU. Last November, he was on the winning side of the highest-scoring game in Division I history, a 77-63 barnburner against Houston in which he threw for 9 TDs and ran for a 10th. That’s about as far from the B1G West grind as you can get. If it translates from Texas to the upper Midwest, the rest of the division is not even remotely prepared to keep up.
23. Jaxson Dart or Spencer Sanders, Ole Miss
Dart was fine in 2022, finishing in the top half of the SEC in pass efficiency and Total QBR with perfectly respectable marks from the film eaters at Pro Football Focus. Incumbents with that kind of track record as a true sophomore usually don’t have to worry about job security. But Lane Kiffin clearly has his sights set higher than “respectable,” and after watching an 8-0 start unravel in a 1-4 finish he was in no mood to settle for the status quo. Enter Sanders, a 6th-year vet with 41 career starts at Oklahoma State, whose arrival (along with blue-chip LSU transfer Walker Howard) initiated a high-stakes QB controversy only the transfer portal could make possible.
Dart appeared to emerge from spring drills with the incumbent’s edge, although all three contenders looked the part in the spring game. He’s being counted on to level up as a downfield passer, while Sanders, who’s coming off a shoulder injury that dogged him over the second half of last season, represents an upgrade as a runner — a serious consideration in an offense that has heavily involved the quarterback in the ground game on Kiffin’s watch. (Albeit with mixed results, considering the punishment Dart and his predecessor, Matt Corral, have both endured.)
No matter who starts the opener, both figure to get meaningful reps in the nonconference slate, and odds are good that the designated backup will be called upon at some point in the thick of SEC play. Either way, the Rebels can rest easy with the best insurance policy in the country.
22. Michael Pratt, Tulane
He didn’t break the bank in terms of yards and touchdowns, but in almost every other respect Pratt was as steady as they come last year in the course of leading Tulane to a top-10 finish. He led the AAC in passer rating, throwing 27 touchdowns to 5 interceptions on a healthy 8.9 yards per attempt, and turned in a stellar 89.3 overall PFF grade — a huge improvement over the 56.2 grade he posted in 2021. For a guy listed at 6-3, 220 pounds, he was also sneakily productive as a runner, accounting for just shy of 600 yards (excluding sacks) and 10 TDs on the ground.
Pratt could have bailed for a vacancy at a Power 5 school; instead, his return as a senior is the biggest reason the Green Wave are favored to repeat as Group of 5 reps in a New Year’s 6 bowl. Regardless of whether his team manages to crack the wider national consciousness again, he has pro scouts’ full attention. At his size, it’s not out of the question that you’ll start hearing Pratt’s name floated among the potential first-rounders a la Will Levis.
21. Kyle McCord, Ohio State
What is there to say about a guy who has yet to take a meaningful college snap? A guy who, technically, has yet to even lock down the starting job? What do you really need to know other than he’s the presumptive QB1 at Ohio State?
Naturally, McCord comes with impeccable credentials as a recruit. But his presence here is more a reflection of the baseline expectations that come with the position: The past 3 players to occupy it since Ryan Day took over the offense in 2018 (Dwayne Haskins, Justin Fields, and CJ Stroud) were all Heisman finalists who presided over prolific attacks, led the Buckeyes to a Big Ten title or CFP berth, and left early to become first-round picks. An elite supporting cast also leaves little margin for a learning curve. Few college quarterbacks have ever had a better pair of wideouts at their disposal at the same time than Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka. (A lot of current NFL quarterbacks probably don’t, either.)
Win-now mode is the default setting. If McCord isn’t closing in on the top of this list by the Michigan game, rest assured the collective anxiety across the state of Ohio will reflect it.
20. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
The hype following Sanders to Boulder from Jackson State is not merely the product of his last name, and his success at the FCS level — 23-3 as a starter, national Freshman of the Year in 2021, SWAC Offensive Player of the Year in ’22 — cannot be dismissed as merely the result of facing marginal competition. As a recruit, he was a consensus 4-star with a lengthy offer sheet from name-brand schools across the country.
Athletically, he arguably stacks up against any current Pac-12 starter this side of Caleb Williams. Of the many, many question marks surrounding Colorado this fall, the new starting quarterback is the least of them.
In fact, if there’s another position on the depth chart that clearly benefited from the offseason roster purge, it’s wide receiver. The Buffs added a couple of relatively proven transfers from South Florida, Xavier Weaver and Jimmy Horn Jr., as well as all-purpose ace Travis Hunter, the No. 1 overall prospect in the 2022 class, who followed the Sanders clan from Jackson State and devoted most of his time in the spring to working on offense. (Although Hunter was primarily a cornerback last year at JSU, for the record.)
With Sanders pulling the trigger, the passing game is one area — likely the only one — where the rebuild figures to be roughly up to Pac-12 speed right out of the gate.
19. Joe Milton III, Tennessee
For a guy who’s been on campus as long as Milton, he has not played much, with just 697 career snaps over 5 seasons at Michigan and Tennessee. Both of his stints as an opening-day starter, at Michigan in 2020 and Tennessee in ’21, were eventful but brief. Pretty much anyone else with that kind of résumé at such a late stage of their career would never even sniff this list. But no one else has what Milton has: A military-grade right arm that effortlessly stacks up against the biggest guns on record.
Joe Milton. From downtown. pic.twitter.com/AB22UpkcuH
— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) July 31, 2023
Now, does it always land where he intends it to? It does not.
Milton’s rep for comic inaccuracy is well-established, and will continue to dog him in his final season of eligibility until he proves otherwise. On paper, at least, it is also perhaps slightly overblown. In 2022, Milton launched 29 of his 82 attempts at least 20 yards downfield, per PFF, predictably the highest rate in the SEC by a wide margin; more surprisingly, given the scouting report, he also led the league in completion percentage on those throws, at 48.3%. (Among regular starters, Hendon Hooker and Spencer Rattler tied for the SEC lead at 44.1%.) Small sample size, etc., but in his limited capacity Milton was the only FBS passer with at least 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Two other reasons for optimism this fall: 1) Josh Heupel’s offense, which has a well-established reputation of its own for allowing its quarterbacks to unleash the beast vertically; and 2) Milton’s most recent performance, a 251-yard, 3-touchdown outing in place of an injured Hendon Hooker in the Vols’ Orange Bowl win over Clemson.
You don’t have to fall for the cliché that random bowl victories generate “momentum” to recognize that if that’s the final-draft version of Milton the Vols get in 2023, they have a very good chance of being right back in the CFP mix. The question is just how big that if really is.
18. Jalon Daniels, Kansas
Daniels was on his way to a special year in 2022 before a midseason shoulder injury derailed both his ascent and his team’s. Before the injury, the Jayhawks were the darlings of the early season, boasting a 5-0 record, their first national ranking in more than a decade, and one of the most creative and efficient offenses on any level. After the injury, they finished 1-6, regressing to the mean with a thud. Daniels missed all of 4 games, and wasn’t quite himself after making an unexpectedly early return in November.
Drip level: elite 💧@JalonDaniels6 is wearing his highlights today pic.twitter.com/cygQnnzIwc
— Kansas Football (@KU_Football) July 12, 2023
His performance in the bowl game, a 565-yard, 6-touchdown scorcher against Arkansas, was a reminder of what might have been. Even factoring in his diminished outings at the end of the regular season, Daniels finished as the Big 12 leader in pass efficiency and the national leader in Total QBR, edging out much bigger stars. At 100 percent, he’s the kind of dual-threat talent who gives Kansas — again: Kansas — a fighting chance almost every time out. Given the state of the defense, the Jayhawks will usually need every drop in the tank every time, too.
17. Will Rogers, Mississippi State
Up to this point in his career Rogers has been the quintessential Mike Leach quarterback, setting SEC records for career attempts and completions in just 3 seasons. Who is he now without Leach? The Bulldogs are moving on from the Air Raid, figuring (wisely) that there’s no point in attempting to run a posthumous version of Leach’s signature offense in the absence of the man himself; the new play-caller, Kevin Barbay, comes from Appalachian State with a more conventionally balanced approach. The days of putting the ball in the air 50 times per game are over.
That poses a significant challenge for Rogers, a classic “system” quarterback who was as comfortable in his system as anyone on the college level. Like every other Leach QB who came before him, he’s never been mistaken for a stud prospect with a golden arm, or for posing any threat whatsoever as a runner; his chief asset is a processing speed honed from the sheer volume of repetition over three years and thousands of reps in a familiar offense. At the same time, the transition also presents an opportunity to prove his skill set is more adaptable than he’s usually been given credit for. Is it possible Rogers has more mobility and/or downfield juice than Leach’s version of the Air Raid ever asked him to demonstrate? Barbay’s job is to find out.
16. Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland
Tagovailoa told reporters recently that a representative of an unspecified SEC program — for convenience, let’s just call it “Amabala” — offered him $1.5 million to transfer over the offseason. Does that seem like a real number for a second-team All-Big Ten quarterback with marginal pro prospects and an 0-9 record as a starter vs. ranked opponents?
I’m skeptical, but amid the complete lack of regulation or transparency in the NIL market who the heck really knows? (On3.com estimates Tagovailoa’s NIL value at $380k, for whatever it’s worth, which unless they’re consulting some kind of secret database of all the contracts is frankly not much. Guys are “worth” whatever the most pie-eyed boosters are willing and able to pony up.) At any rate, assuming folks are not out there throwing around six and seven figures strictly on the basis of someone’s last name, the fact that Tagovailoa could be the object of such lucrative overtures is a reflection of his emergence as more than just Tua’s little brother.
The part about Taulia’s marginal pro prospects is mostly due to his 5-11, 208-pound frame, not his production. Entering his 4th season at Maryland, he already owns every major school passing record, including yards, touchdowns, completion percentage and pass efficiency. He has a winning record (15-12) as a starter at a program that had endured 6 straight losing seasons before he arrived as a transfer in 2020.
The next step: Cracking that goose egg vs. ranked opponents. The Terps made some progress on that front in 2022, managing a couple of competitive, four-quarter games against Michigan and Ohio State. (They also beat then-No. 25 N.C. State in the bowl game with a banged-up Tagovailoa coming off the bench.) Springing an upset on one of the Big Ten’s heavy hitters would secure a lofty perch in UMD history.
15. Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
How do you solve a riddle like Rattler? In the span of a few short years he’s taken the roller-coaster route from rising star to Heisman favorite to depth-chart casualty to has-been and halfway back again, remaining an enigma to the end. Anyway, he’s still here.
On paper, Rattler spent most of 2022 ranked at or near the bottom of the SEC in every major category, including pass efficiency and Total QBR. South Carolina’s offense as a whole was nondescript, bottoming out in a 38-6 debacle at Florida in mid-November in which Rattler was literally posterized in his attempt to tackle a 415-pound defensive tackle in the open field following a fumble — a fitting image at that point for his deflating reputation. (Credit where it’s due: Despite the mockery, Rattler actually succeeded in getting possibly the largest man in the history of college football to the ground.)
Just when it seemed to safe to write him off as a bust, though, he flipped the switch, turning in the season’s most stunning individual performance in a 63-point bonanza against Tennessee that reminded everyone what the hype had been about in the first place. He followed it up by leading a landmark upset over Clemson, the Gamecocks’ first win in the rivalry since 2013, generating a palpable sense of momentum heading into the offseason. His arm talent has certainly never been in doubt, which only makes his inconsistency that much more frustrating. With a dozen Saturdays left in his college career, Rattler remains capable of just about anything on any given one of them.
14. Cameron Rising, Utah
At first glance, the 24-year-old Rising looks less like your typical college quarterback than the guy you grew up with who’s never been in fewer than 3 local rock bands at any given point since middle school. In fact, he plays a little bit like that guy, too: With an abandon that often verges on reckless. He’s missed time to assorted injuries in each of the past three seasons, including a season-ending shoulder injury in 2020 and a torn ACL in last year’s Rose Bowl – not to be confused with the previous year’s Rose Bowl, when he was knocked out with a concussion.
But then, you know, there’s a reason the man is playing in multiple Rose Bowls. When upright, Rising’s hard-charging style is a perfect fit for an overachieving outfit like Utah, where he’s overseen an 18-6 record as a starter the past two years en route to back-to-back Pac-12 titles. He’s the only returning quarterback nationally who ranked in the top 10 of ESPN’s Total QBR metric in both 2021 and ’22, a distinction he shared with no. 1 overall pick Bryce Young, no. 2 overall pick CJ Stroud, and two-time national champ Stetson Bennett IV. Rising’s game may not translate as well to the next level, and he’ll probably have to lead a playoff run against a loaded Pac-12 schedule to have any chance of being remembered in the same class as the Youngs, Strouds, and Stetsons on this one. The fact that it’s well within the realm of plausibility speaks volumes to how much he means to the Utes.
13. Quinn Ewers, Texas
In retrospect, it turns out that anointing a 19-year-old who’d yet to attempt a college pass as a legitimate Heisman candidate may have been slightly premature. Preseason hype aside, Ewers was just ordinary in 2022, landing squarely in the middle of the pack among Big 12 starters in efficiency, QBR and overall PFF grade. As a team, Texas’ scoring average slightly declined for the second year in a row on the way to an 8-5 finish. The Longhorns’ most prized QB recruit since Vince Young himself was not an overnight savior, and they were most decidedly not back.
Duly chastened, they’re resolved to hold their expectations in check in Year 2. Ha, no. Please. Ewers’ golden arm still inspires visions of big things to come. He enjoyed a fresh round of optimistic headlines about his growth and maturity in the spring, when Steve Sarkisian made a point of snuffing out any hint of a pending controversy between the incumbent and the freshly arrived Arch Manning.
For now, anyway, it’s Ewers’ job, with all the opportunity, exaggeration, and angst that comes with it. Still, too much more of the latter and rest assured the Manning bandwagon is all gassed up and standing by.
12. Frank Harris, UT-San Antonio
In the meantime, the most accomplished quarterback in Texas is just a short ride down I-35.
Harris, 24, signed with UTSA in 2017, which in college football years makes him positively ancient – a beneficiary not only of the free COVID year, but also of multiple medical redshirts due to injuries that nearly derailed his career as an underclassman. On the other side of those setbacks, he’s been one of the most consistently productive signal-callers in the game. Harris has accounted for an FBS-best 96 touchdowns over the past 3 seasons (71 passing, 24 rushing, 1 receiving), while leading the Roadrunners to back-to-back Conference-USA titles in the last two.
Both Harris and his coach, Jeff Traylor, surely had opportunities to join Power 5 outfits last winter. Instead, they’re back to head up UTSA’s transition to the American Athletic Conference, along with the vast majority of last year’s lineup. (The notable exception being leading receiver Zakhari Franklin, who transferred to Ole Miss.) The AAC is a step up in competition from CUSA, especially at the top, but for a well-seasoned UTSA outfit that doesn’t mean it’s not ripe for the taking right out of the gate.
11. Grayson McCall, Coastal Carolina
It was an interesting offseason for McCall, the 3-time Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year, who had a couple big decisions to make last December after Coastal Carolina coach Jamey Chadwell packed his bags for Liberty.
First, there was the draft – a pass. Then there was the matter of where McCall would spend his final season on campus. Initially, he entered his name in the transfer portal, inviting speculation over which high-profile vacancy he might fill. A few weeks later, though, he reversed course, announcing he intended to finish his career as a Chanticleer after all under the new coach, Tim Beck.
Now for the really big question: Just how much of McCall’s success does he owe to Chadwell’s unique spin on the spread option, and vice versa? As it stands, McCall has accounted for 95 career touchdowns (78 passing, 17 rushing) vs. just 8 interceptions, a remarkable ratio that puts him within driving range of the FBS record for career passer rating, currently owned by Tua Tagovailoa. (McCall set the single-season record in 2021.) Regardless of how his tenure ends, more than any other active player he already embodies what it means to be a true “face of the program.”
10. Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma
Gabriel is not a front-runner for the Heisman or a future franchise cornerstone, which by the lofty standard set for Oklahoma quarterbacks over the past decade makes him an underachiever. By almost any other standard, though, he was the least of the Sooners’ problems in 2022. While the team’s fortunes slumped, Gabriel still finished at or near the top of the Big 12 in every major category — including overall PFF grade, where he edged out Heisman finalist Max Duggan for highest marks in the league — at the helm of an attack that led the conference in total offense for the 6th year in a row.
Four of his 6 losses as a starter came in nail-biters in which OU scored at least 32 points, including arguably his two best performances, against Kansas State and Texas Tech. And as disappointing as the record was with Gabriel in the lineup, his value was most obvious in the only game he wasn’t: A 49-0 humiliation at the hands of Texas.
Anyway, while Gabriel’s job is safe for the time being, there is a viable outlet for the fan base’s angst this time around in the person of Jackson Arnold, a 5-star freshman who instantly improved the backup situation in the spring. If all goes according to plan, Arnold will remain in the freezer until 2024. If not, memories of the Spencer Rattler/Caleb Williams ordeal of 2021 are all too fresh.
9. Jayden Daniels, LSU
Daniels was efficient enough as a passer in 2022, finishing among the national leaders in interception rate with 3 INTs in 388 attempts. What really distinguished him, though, was his legs: Excluding sacks, his 1,079 rushing yards, 45 runs of 10+ yards, and 54 missed tackles forced led all FBS quarterbacks in all three columns. More important, they led LSU — whose injury-plagued running back rotation behind him never gelled into a stable committee — by a mile.
While not exactly a breakaway threat, Daniels’ short-area elusiveness as a scrambler and proficiency in the zone-read game were the keys that unlocked the Tigers’ offense at midseason, and his overtime touchdown scramble against Alabama was arguably the single biggest play en route to the SEC West crown.
Now, is that enough to make him a plausible bet for the Heisman? Eh. Making that case will require significantly more downfield juice, an area where Daniels was so conservative last year that at one point Brian Kelly openly urged him to take more risks. If he manages to level up on that front while continuing to account for an outsized share of the ground game, welcome to the conversation. At the very least, his title as the SEC’s most dynamic dual-threat seems safe.
8. JJ McCarthy, Michigan
For a 5-star talent in a high-profile position, McCarthy was easy to take for granted in 2022, presiding over a 13-1 record in classic “game manager” fashion. He embraced it, turning in the Big Ten’s 2nd-best efficiency rating behind only CJ Stroud. When the offense needed more late in the year, though, suddenly the quarterback was front and center: He connected on 3 long touchdown passes against Ohio State, added 3 more in the Big Ten title game, and threw for a career-high 343 yards on 10.1 per attempt in a wild semifinal shootout against TCU — a game in which he also flexed his underrated mobility.
That was also, yes, a game in which McCarthy threw 2 crippling pick-6 INTs after having thrown just 3 picks all year up to that point. There is a lot to unpack about the specifics of how that particular loss unfolded, but looking ahead the upshot is plain enough: The closer Michigan gets to a return trip to the CFP, the hotter the takes re: McCarthy’s big-game bona fides will be served. They’re out there, simmering. In the meantime, there remains very little doubt that he’s going to get the chance to address them, one way or the other.
7. KJ Jefferson, Arkansas
Jefferson thrived under former offensive coordinator Kendal Briles, accounting for 60 total touchdowns in 2021 and ’22 while finishing in the top 10 nationally in pass efficiency both years. As far as his draft stock is concerned, though, the transition new OC Dan Enos might be for the best.
Fairly or not, the Briles system has always been considered a very “college” offense that doesn’t ask its quarterbacks to master many of the concepts NFL scouts ideally want to see from a top prospect. There certainly has never been any doubt about Jefferson’s physical tools or his production; if he has anything left to prove as a 5th-year senior that he hasn’t already, it’s all in the technical arcana of pre-snap recognition and post-snap reads.
Regardless of what else changes, one thing that will not: The enormous degree of difficulty in wrestling his 6-3, 242-pound frame to the ground. In the pocket or short-yardage, the man is a load. Jefferson has generated more than 75% of his 1,777 career rushing yards (excluding sacks) after contact, and 18 of his 19 rushing touchdowns from inside the red zone.
6. Jordan Travis, Florida State
For most of his FSU career, Travis has been seen as a placeholder — an undersized, unheralded transfer marking time on losing teams until Mike Norvell (or the next coach) finally landed the blue-chip QB who would turn the thing around. As it turns out, Travis himself may be the one the Noles have been waiting for.
Healthy and entrenched in 2022, he flourished, finishing as the ACC leader in pass efficiency and among the top 10 nationally in both PFF grading and Total QBR. The offense as a whole achieved liftoff, averaging 42.2 ppg over the course of a 6-game winning streak to end the year.
Travis is not a Bryce Young-caliber prospect, but his combination of elusiveness and efficiency is in the ballpark, and there is a lot to be said for being a 23-year-old with 5 college seasons already under your belt. (See also: Hendon Hooker, Stetson Bennett IV.) Very few players who have ever made the kind of senior leap Travis made in Year 5 — or who ever will in the future, once the beneficiaries of the free COVID year eventually age out — also had the opportunity he has now to take the next step in Year 6. Finish the long, rocky climb back to national relevance, and the humble years will barely even register as a footnote.
5. Sam Hartman, Notre Dame
Another beneficiary of the free COVID year, Hartman decided to take full advantage of his final season of eligibility by trading a victory lap at Wake Forest for one of the most heavily scrutinized positions in the sport. At Wake, he set every record in the book, racking up more passing yards (12,967) and touchdowns (110) than any other active FBS quarterback over the course of 45 career starts. He also put his body on the line to do it, rebounding from a career-threatening blood clot last summer to deliver his best season as a Demon Deacon. (Domers, get ready to learn more than you could possibly want to know about your new quarterback’s surgically removed rib.)
In South Bend, Hartman was greeted as the face of the program from Day 1, at the helm an offense replacing its only plus receiver (All-America TE Michael Mayer) and its coordinator, Alabama-bound Tommy Rees. The scheme will look nothing like the RPO-heavy, “slow mesh” system he mastered at Wake Forest. And coming off a meh debut for rookie head coach Marcus Freeman, there’s pressure to establish some progress in Year 2. Last year, the injury-plagued situation behind center was a convenient outlet for fans’ frustration. This year, either Hartman proves to be a dramatic upgrade or the angst will be directed squarely at the sideline.
4. Bo Nix, Oregon
It took 4 years and a 2,600-mile cushion between himself and Auburn, Ala., but the Bo Nix Experience finally lived up to the hype. After three maddening seasons in the SEC, Nix was a new man in 2022 — accurate, efficient and steady under pressure. He rebounded from a miserable opener against an old nemesis, Georgia, to finish among the national leaders in completion percentage, passer rating and Total QBR, all areas in which he’d consistently come in below average at Auburn, and accounted for more touchdowns (43) than his former school managed as a team (35).
As a longtime Nix skeptic in his Auburn days, it’s tempting to imagine the old, self-combustible Bo still lurking around the corner. More likely, the version that emerged last year at Oregon was the natural end point for a young QB who was a little too hyped at the start of his career, thrust into the spotlight a little too soon, and judged a little too harshly for what amounted to normal growing pains. (OK, maybe way too harshly.)
The finished product arrived more or less on schedule. If he had to move 2 time zones away to get there, more power to him.
3. Michael Penix Jr., Washington
Like Nix, Penix thrived in fresh colors in 2022 following an undergraduate career that ran the gamut the physically and emotionally. At Indiana, his enormous promise was derailed by season-ending injuries in 4 consecutive seasons. Also like Nix, who transferred to Oregon to play for his original offensive coordinator at Auburn, Kenny Dillingham, Penix’s re-emergence in the Pacific Northwest followed his reunification with former Indiana OC Kalen DeBoer, the new coach at Washington. Together, they resolved to air it out: Penix stayed healthy, averaged 43 attempts per game, broke the school record for passing yards and led the nation in total offense, nearly doubling the Huskies’ 2021 scoring average in the process.
With essentially his entire surrounding cast back, last year’s stat line is just the starting point for expectations in ’23. Penix’s top receivers, Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan, are among the best returning wideouts anywhere. But don’t overlook his offensive line, which was vital in keeping its injury-prone QB upright: Penix faced one of the lowest pressure rates in the country, taking just 4 sacks on 576 dropbacks.
2. Drake Maye, North Carolina
Maye took the baton from the most prolific passer in UNC history, Sam Howell, and never looked back, setting school records for total offense and touchdowns with room to spare as a redshirt freshman. By year’s end, even a nosedive in his production over the course of an 0-4 finish wasn’t enough to curb his surging stock: He turned down lucrative transfer opportunities in favor of another year in Chapel Hill, and – like his predecessor – enters Year 3 on the short list for both the Heisman and the No. 1 overall pick next spring.
In Howell’s case, his final season on campus in 2021 fell well short of those lofty expectations, largely for reasons beyond his control. Maye’s bid for local immortality hinges on an as-yet unproven supporting cast as well. The Tar Heels lost their top two receivers and best pass blocker to the draft, while the running back-by-committee approach left Maye himself as the team’s leading rusher even after subtracting for negative yardage on sacks. A nice line to have on the résumé again come awards season, sure. But the only way to guarantee he remains relevant at that point on the calendar is to make sure he remains upright.
1. Caleb Williams, USC
Who else? Williams’ ascent has been foreshadowed and confirmed every step of the way: Top billing as a recruit, instant fame as a freshman, Heisman coronation in Year 2, undisputed Face of the Sport in Year 3.
A near-perfect prospect for the modern game, he’s essentially a bigger, stronger-armed version of Bryce Young — elusive, efficient, creative — with identical production. In his first season as a Trojan, Williams led the nation in touchdown passes; ranked in the top 5 in total offense, pass efficiency and Total QBR; and posted the top PFF grade on pressured dropbacks, by far, throwing 14 TDs and zero interceptions under duress. (Only 2 other quarterbacks in the PFF database, dating to 2014, have graded out better in the pressure metric: Kyler Murray in 2018 and Joe Burrow in ’19.) No single player is actually worth tanking for, but if your team is getting to the point of no return … then yeah, this is the dude actually worth tanking for.
More magic from Caleb Williams #USC pic.twitter.com/2zdSAteR8M
— Trevor Booth (@TrevorMBooth) November 27, 2022
Like all the great ones, Williams’ legacy on campus will hinge significantly on his ring finger (currently bare), and like all prolific Lincoln Riley quarterbacks he will have to overcome an atrocious defense to get within sniffing distance of the Playoff.
In USC’s 3 losses in 2022, he averaged 431 yards per game with 13 touchdowns; the Trojans scored 42, 24, and 45 points. (The 24-point outing, you’ll recall, coming with Williams limping badly throughout the second half of the Pac-12 Championship Game against Utah after lighting up the Utes in the first half.) Not enough. Heisman winners and No. 1 overall picks come and go; carrying a Riley outfit to a national crown opposite a typical Riley D would be a truly singular achievement.