Pac-12 QB power rankings entering Week 1: Transfers reign supreme
There’s no position more important to the success of a college football team than the quarterback. And there’s no exercise more synonymous with college football than ranking things for no other reason than to just rank them. So here’s a power ranking of the Pac-12 quarterbacks ahead of the new year. One thing I found interesting: 10 of the 13 quarterbacks you’ll see named below have transferred to their current school, either this offseason or in the past.
This will be updated every week. Let’s get to it:
12. Brendon Lewis/JT Shrout, Colorado
Lewis played in just one game during the 2020 season — the Alamo Bowl against Texas — and looked promising. He sparked a big play and was efficient with his pass attempts. In 2021, he struggled. The blame doesn’t all rest on the quarterback’s shoulders considering he played behind a maddeningly inconsistent offensive line, but Lewis completed less than 60% of his pass attempts and very rarely looked downfield. The job was never in question though because Shrout was recovering from an injury. This time around, the former Tennessee quarterback is healthy and competing with Lewis for the starting spot in camp. Coach Karl Dorrell has said they won’t be announcing a starter. We’ll see how this situation plays out.
11. Jack Plummer, California
A former Purdue starter, Plummer beats out Kai Millner for the job at Cal this offseason. It was pretty obviously going to be Plummer’s job even though coach Justin Wilcox and Co. delayed making the formal announcement. Plummer has been yo-yo’d in and out of the lineup for three straight years, so I’m curious to see what he can do for a staff that is fully invested in him as the guy. An interesting note on his game: only two of his 251 pass attempts have been picked off over the last two seasons, during which he’s also thrown 15 touchdowns. He played in a quarterback-friendly system with some elite pass-catchers around him, and that does not appear to be the case in Berkeley.
10. Michael Penix Jr., Washington
Penix went 12-5 as a starter at Indiana. His breakout season came in 2020, when Penix led the Hoosiers with 1,645 passing yards and 14 touchdowns (against four picks) in just six games. The team opened the year 4-0, knocking off top-25 opponents in Penn State and Michigan. Penix nearly led a 28-point comeback against Ohio State by throwing for 491 yards and five touchdowns. In 2019 — the only year working with Kalen DeBoer, now his head coach — Penix completed 69% of his passes for 1,394 yards and 10 touchdowns. His final year with IU was rough — four touchdowns, seven interceptions — but DeBoer says he’s seen in camp more of the Penix he knew in 2019 than the one IU fans knew last season. The biggest concern with Penix isn’t his decision-making, though. It’s his health. He has never made it through a season healthy. He had ACL injuries in 2018 and 2020. A right sternoclavicular joint issue in 2019 ended his season early. Then an AC joint injury in his throwing shoulder last year limited him to five games.
9. Emory Jones, Arizona State
Against top-50 defenses last season, Jones completed 63% of his passes with six touchdowns and six interceptions while producing 6.9 yards per pass. Against all other defenses, his completion rate was almost five percentage points higher, he was at nearly a 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio, and his yards-per-pass clip was at 9.1. The optimist says, “that’s fine, he won’t be playing SEC defenses anymore.” Remove the game against FCS Samford when Jones threw for 464 yards and six touchdowns. The rest of his season looks different — 62.8% completion rate, 7.3 yards per pass (would have been ninth in the SEC), 13 touchdowns, 13 interceptions. I think Jones can be successful with Arizona State, but there are questions he needs to answer early on about his ability to stand in the pocket and deliver the football with decisiveness and accuracy.
8. Chance Nolan, Oregon State
Nolan returns after starting in 12 of the team’s 13 games last season — he opened the year as the backup and that lasted a whole half of football. He completed 64% of his passes for 19 touchdowns and 2,677 yards against 10 interceptions, finishing the season as the Pac-12’s third-best quarterback by QBR, behind Utah’s Cameron Rising and UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson. (His season-long 70.9 QBR was the best mark by a qualified Oregon State quarterback since 2013.) Nolan was excellent on throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Fun fact: when Nolan threw 25 or fewer passes, Oregon State went 6-2 and Nolan had a 12:5 touchdown to interception ratio. When the ground game was working and Nolan could play more within himself, he was awfully efficient.
7. Bo Nix, Oregon
In three years as a starter for the Auburn Tigers, Nix produced over 7,000 passing yards and 39 touchdowns against 16 interceptions. He had moments of brilliance mixed with pockets of frustration. In those three seasons, he had 44 turnover-worthy plays, as tracked by PFF. That was by far the most among SEC quarterbacks since 2019 and one more than what Anthony Brown had in his first three seasons as a starter. This is one of those “development is never linear” situations. After winning the SEC’s Freshman of the Year award in 2019, Nix was buried for his play in 2020. The completion rate stayed under 60%, the touchdowns declined, and he threw one more interception than the year prior. But before an ankle injury forced him to the sideline last season, Nix looked like a quarterback who’d grown. We expect guys to play, struggle, learn, get better, learn a little more, and get a little better. We expect year-over-year improvement. Sometimes it doesn’t happen. Nix has all the physical tools to make some of his poor decisions still work. If a reunion with OC Kenny Dillingham can weed out a few more of those frustration pockets, Nix will surprise some folks who have only heard that he’s been a quarterback in regression since that victory over Oregon in 2019.
6. Tanner McKee, Stanford
Think of it like this: if Tanner McKee walked into the transfer portal, teams would be falling over themselves to try and secure his services. Last season he played behind an extremely inconsistent offensive line and saw his receiving corps decimated by injury. The 6-foot-6 McKee has prototypical size for the position. He’s experienced, now in his third year in the system. He plays with nice timing in the short passing game, has good touch on his intermediate throws, and can really drive the ball on his deep stuff. He’s one of my favorite players, and if Stanford can help him out the Cardinal could return to a bowl game.
5. Jayden de Laura, Arizona
No player in the Pac-12 had more big-time throws (per PFF) than de Laura did at Washington State last season. No Pac-12 quarterback with at least 20 pass attempts produced those big-time throws at a better rate than de Laura. He pushed the ball downfield. He hunted those explosives. Arizona’s new quarterback creates highlight plays. He’s exactly what the Wildcats needed. And with big-play receiving threats and versatile backfield runners coming to Tucson with him this offseason, he has a pretty nice supporting cast of playmakers.
4. Cameron Ward, Washington State
I am willing to die alone on Ward Island. I am willing to be so invested in the hype train for this former FCS quarterback that if I’m wrong, I am mercilessly slandered for it. I think he’s going to be wonderful for the Cougars. I really do. All this guy does is toss touchdown passes. In 2021, he threw 47 of them. His points-per-play production was off the charts at Incarnate Word. After spending his high school days running a Wing T offense, he went the FCS route because FBS teams didn’t want to take the chance on a guy with no film. Immediately — like, immediately — he proved that he was a gamble worth taking. Washington State is going to live by his arm and die by it. I like the Cougars more than most in 2022 because I like Ward more than most. And I’m OK with that.
3. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA
When the Bruins got hot to close out the 2021 season, Thompson-Robinson was blistering. Over his final three games, he produced 1,016 total yards of offense at 9.3 yards a play, 10 touchdowns while completing 69.7% of his throws, and led the Bruins to three straight wins. He’s a devastating athlete with a quick release and excellent arm strength. The inconsistency is what turns people off. I’ll be curious to see if a fifth-year in coach Chip Kelly’s system and all the experience he has playing college football can help settle the feet and the nerves down a bit when the pocket starts to break down. Mechanics get a little touchy when faced with pressure. UCLA has big expectations in 2022. Thompson-Robinson feels like the kind of quarterback who can manage them.
2. Cameron Rising, Utah
Rising threw for 2,493 yards and 20 touchdowns in 2021, picked off only five times while completing 64% of his pass attempts. He added another 499 yards and six scores rushing. Rising posted the sixth-best total QBR in all of college football last season, had one of the 12 best big-time throw rates (per PFF) in Power Five football, and had the fifth-best offensive grade among P5 quarterbacks when pressured. His accuracy and ability to make plays with his feet made him a sneaky but deadly quarterback. The next piece of his game to evolve is the deep ball. He took a shot downfield (20-plus yards) on 15% of his attempts, but the efficiency wasn’t quite there. Utah worked on that part of the game this offseason. Can we please get some kind of Heisman campaign up and running for this man?
1. Caleb Williams, USC
Do you want the established quarterback or the new guy oozing potential? There’s an argument for Rising — last year’s first-team All-Pac-12 quarterback — to once again be the top guy entering the year. There is also a very, very compelling argument for the first-year Trojan. Williams finished with the fourth-best QBR in the country last year. He was fourth in EPA per play, and third in PAA* per play. There’s something about Williams’ game that’s magnetic. He ignites a locker room. He has the it factor coaches always talk about. There are questions to answer in 2022, but it’s easy to forget that he’s only played essentially half a season of starting football at the college level. He didn’t go through a full offseason as the starter last year; he did this year. Coaches at USC have been impressed by his command. With the best collection of wideouts to throw to in all of college football, Williams should have no problem putting up major numbers this season.