Fool's Gold: Projecting the first impressions and false impressions from Week 1
So much for middle ground.
On the one hand, the Pac-12’s opening weekend features Arizona State taking on Northern Arizona, UCLA hosting Bowling Green, USC playing paddy-cake with Rice. You’ve got Washington versus Kent State and Stanford welcoming Colgate and Cal taking on UC Davis.
How much can we really learn from any of those games? These aren’t exactly windows into the soul. How those Pac-12 teams fare against vastly inferior opponents can all be taken with a grain of salt.
On the other hand, two of the conference’s top teams travel to the foreign territory of the SEC, where we’ll find out quickly just how they stack up against some of the top competition in the country.
Here’s a look at some of the pressing questions that will get some answers in Week 1. Which of these answers will provide real nuggets of information, and which ones are just fool’s gold?
1. Are Utah’s title chances for real?
A Week 1 trip to The Swamp will tell us everything we need to know about the Utes’ long-term chances. If Utah can survive what is expected to be a hot and muggy day in Gainesville, we’ll know the Utes have the mental fortitude to persevere through a long season with the bullseye squarely on their backs.
Unlike the Pac-12’s other SEC showdown, with Oregon taking on defending national champion Georgia, Utah could and actually should win this game. And there are real CFP implications in this one: If there is an upset or two in the top 6, Utah can help to solidify its early season standing with a win. An early season SEC road win will also be a nice buffer if the Utes have a slip-up at some point.
Verdict: First impression
2. Is UCLA’s pass defense improved?
The Bruins took a step forward last year, finishing 6th in the conference in defensive pass efficiency. But they still allowed far too many yards through the air, particularly to teams that had no business throwing all over them. UCLA allowed more than 300 passing yards per game in its 4 losses last year.
Bowling Green had the 4th-worst passing game in the MAC last year, averaging 214.8 passing yards with just 12 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Quarterback Matt McDonald is back for his senior year after throwing for 2,555 yards and 12 touchdowns with 7 picks.
Even if the Bruins shut him down, that won’t prove much. UCLA will have much bigger fish to fry.
Verdict: False impression
3. Is Bo Nix the guy for Oregon?
Forget the Pac-12, the Ducks have the stiffest opening-week test in all of college football, with a so-called “neutral-site” matchup with Georgia at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Bulldogs are favored by three scores — the spread was 17.5 as of Sunday — and even Oregon’s ample talent will be in for a tough test against the defending champions.
Nix was stifled last season in Auburn’s 34-10 loss to the Bulldogs on Oct. 9, completing 21-of-38 passes for 217 yards and an interception with no scores. Nix was sacked 4 times in the loss, and Georgia’s defense is just as formidable this year.
If the Ducks can keep this one close, and if Nix stands up to the Bulldogs’ fury, the Pac-12’s top teams will be on red alert.
Verdict: First impression
4. Has USC found the fix for a decade of dormancy?
How much can you really learn in this battle between a top-15 USC team and a bottom-10 Rice team that has won 15 games in the past 6 years? The Trojans haven’t lost a season-opener since 2016, when they fell to No. 1 Alabama. Rice is not Alabama. Rice is barely Alabama State.
USC should win by 40-plus, and that might be underselling the Trojans.
What we can learn is this: Is there enough ball to go around? Forget the returning USC skill talent and even talented freshman stars who are ready to roll — See: Raleek Brown — and focus on the transfers who make for a veritable all-star team. Caleb Williams will need to find bandwidth for Jordan Addison, Mario Williams, Terrell Bynum, Travis Dye and Austin Jones. How he mixes it up against Rice will be interesting, although not very relevant.
Verdict: False impression
5. Will Cameron Ward hang with better competition?
Unfortunately, we’ll have to wait a week to find out if Cameron Ward is ready for the big time. There may be no worst-to-first jump from Week 1 to Week 2 like the Cougars going from FCS doormat Idaho in Pullman to a road tilt at Wisconsin.
If Ward, new Washington State head coach Jake Dickert’s shiny new toy at quarterback, dominates the Vandals, well, he should have. Ward was spectacular against FCS competition a year ago, so anything less than 400 yards and a few touchdowns would be a letdown.
We won’t really learn Ward’s potential until the Cougars take on the No. 18 Badgers in Week 2, one of two brutal matchups for the Pac-12 that day (Arizona State at No. 12 Oklahoma State).
Verdict: False impression
6. Can Oregon State figure in the Pac-12 top-4 mix?
There may not be a more evenly matched first-week battle in the conference than the Beavers hosting the visiting Boise State Broncos, and, apparently, ESPN agrees with me. The Football Power Index Matchup Predictor pegs this game as close to 50/50 as it gets — 50.2 for Oregon State, 49.8 for Boise State.
After starting 3-4 under first-year coach Andy Avalos a year ago, the Broncos turned the corner at the end of October. Boise State reeled off four straight wins, including a season-defining 40-14 win at Fresno State, and they would’ve carried that momentum into the offseason if not for a season-ending 27-16 loss at San Diego State. The Broncos come into this game looking to make an early season statement on the road at a Pac-12 squad.
The Beavers, meanwhile, have a chance to springboard into a big battle with that same Fresno State team that Boise State smashed a season ago. If Oregon State shows well against Broncos QB Hank Bachmeier and a tough defense, that could scare some of the Pac-12’s upper-middle-class competition. Boise State is in the same class as Washington and Washington State and a notch below UCLA and Oregon, so a big game from the Beavers bodes well for them come October and beyond.
Verdict: First impression