ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) is fading USC after another close call.

After Week 5, the Trojans dropped from No. 12 to No. 13 in the predictive model. Just like in the AP Top 25, the Trojans dropped again after a win. They’ve moved down five spots in the last two weeks, and now FPI gives them a 19% chance to win the Pac-12. That’s a dip of four percentage points from a week ago.

Oregon moved up in the ranking from No. 6 to No. 5. The Ducks remain the highest-ranked Pac-12 team, and saw their percentage chance to win the league move from 46.8% a week ago to 48.3%.

Washington didn’t move in the rankings, but it did pick up a couple of percentage points on its Pac-12 title odds.

Here is the updated Pac-12 outlook from FPI:

  • Oregon — 48.3%
  • Washington — 26.3%
  • USC — 19.0%
  • Oregon State — 4.1%
  • Utah — 1.0%
  • UCLA — 0.9%
  • Washington State — 0.4%
  • Cal — 0.0%
  • Arizona — 0.0%
  • Colorado — 0.0%
  • Arizona State — 0.0%
  • Stanford — 0.0%

USC also saw its College Football Playoff chances take a bit of a tumble. A week ago, the Trojans were given a 14% chance to make the Playoff. Now, FPI gives USC a 9.2% chance to make the field.

They’re a tough team to gauge right now. The ceiling looks remarkably high so long as Caleb Williams is playing quarterback. He had four touchdowns in the Arizona game and produced the game-winning two-point conversion in triple-OT. When Williams is on, he can beat anyone. Even when he’s not — Williams completed just 14 of his 25 passes for 205 yards in Week 6 — he’s still likely to be the best player on the field.

USC has been living on the edge in recent weeks despite superhuman play from Williams, though. The floor seems to be quite low for a championship contender.

Washington has a 22.8% chance to make the CFP, according to FPI. That’s a slight increase from a week ago. But it also is a temporary number.

In Week 7, Washington hosts Oregon for a top-10 showdown at Husky Stadium. The winner will take over as the favorite in the Pac-12 and position themselves as a very real CFP threat.

For now, here’s the CFP outlook for each Pac-12 team:

  • Oregon — 40.0%
  • Washington — 22.8%
  • USC — 9.2%
  • Oregon State — 0.8%
  • Utah — 0.1%
  • UCLA — 0.0%
  • Washington State — 0.0%
  • Cal — 0.0%
  • Arizona — 0.0%
  • Colorado — 0.0%
  • Arizona State — 0.0%
  • Stanford — 0.0%