Oregon, given what it returns, looks poised for more in 2024
Oregon has to replace significant — and I do mean significant — pieces from its 2023 group that went 12-2. Bo Nix departs after a record-setting collegiate career. Rimington Trophy-winning center Jackson Powers-Johnson heads to the NFL, as does record-setting wideout Troy Franklin and back-to-back 1,000-yard rusher Bucky Irving.
And yet the Ducks look poised to step into the Big Ten and make immediate noise. ESPN’s Bill Connelly published his first batch of returning production numbers for the 2024 season (things will change after the spring transfer window) and his formula has Oregon with the 28th-highest percentage of returning production in the country.
The Ducks bring back 69% overall. That includes 70% of the production on defense (27th nationally) and 68% on offense (45th).
Nebraska (third), Northwestern (sixth), Rutgers (eighth), Minnesota (19th), Wisconsin (20th), and Penn State (23rd) are the Big Ten programs that sit ahead of Oregon.
Connelly’s methodology weights each position differently, and it factors transfer players into the equation. Receiving yardage from wideouts and tight ends makes up 23.5% of the offensive number, quarterback passing yards at 24%, running back rushing at 5%, and offensive line snaps at 47.5%. On defense, tackles are the largest component (69.5%), followed by passes defended (12%), tackles for loss (10.5%), and sacks (8%).
From Connelly:
On average, teams returning at least 80% of production improve by about 6.4 adjusted points per game in the following season’s SP+ ratings. That’s a pretty significant jump! For a team ranked 25th in SP+ last year, adding 6.4 points to its rating would have bumped it to about 13th. And if we lower the bar to just 70% returning production — a bar 25 teams currently clear — that’s been enough to boost teams by an average of 4.0 points since 2014.
On the other end, about 11% of teams (roughly 15.2 of 134) return under 50% of their production in a given season. That results in an average drop of about 5.7 adjusted points in SP+. For a team that was 25th last year, losing 5.7 points would drop it to 51st. And for the rare team that returns less than 40% of production, the outlook is generally dire: Only 2.6% of teams fall under 40%, but they fall by an average of 9.8 points. Seven teams fell below 40% returning production last season, and while three of them (Charlotte, Colorado and Texas State) were able to stem the tide with heavy loads of transfers, the bottom three teams in returning production — East Carolina (32%), Kent State (29%) and UAB (27%) — saw their SP+ ratings fall by an average of 13.7 points in 2023.
A year ago, three of the four Playoff participants sat in the top 25 when it came to returning production. Michigan, the national champion, was fifth. Texas was 19th and Washington 22nd. One of the stories of the season — Missouri — was ninth. Florida State, which took an unbeaten record in Selection Sunday, led the country in returning production.
There are deviations, of course, but it has been a good indicator of teams poised to grow and teams in line to step back.
Oregon’s transfer acquisitions of Dillon Gabriel and Dante Moore should help to offset the loss of Nix’s production on paper. How Gabriel replicates Nix’s magic on the field will be the story of the 2024 season for the Ducks.
Because they look loaded for another title run elsewhere. Tez Johnson returns at wideout, and Evan Stewart joins the fold. Tailback looks deep. Terrence Ferguson returns to lead the tight ends. Jordan Burch comes back to lead a group that’ll also feature Matayo Uiagalelei, Elijah Rushing, and Blake Purchase. Jeff Bassa and Jestin Jacobs lead the linebackers. Jabbar Muhammad and Kobe Savage came in to reinforce the secondary.
Oregon looks to have enough coverage just about everywhere. The questions seem to be whether the pieces will fit, not necessarily if the Ducks are missing any.
But the schedule figures to be daunting. Oregon could statistically improve off of last year’s pace and still take a step back from a record standpoint.
The Ducks play in Corvallis on Sept. 14. They open Big Ten play on the road against UCLA. After, they’ll play a stretch of seven brand new opponents in seven consecutive weeks; that run includes Ohio State at home, Michigan on the road, and Wisconsin on the road.