Bill Connelly’s SP+ is predicting a rout this weekend in Eugene.

No. 10 Oregon welcomes No. 19 Colorado to Autzen Stadium for both teams’ opening game of conference play. It’s a matchup that was earmarked on the calendar way back when Deion Sanders took the Colorado job, but with CU’s hot start to the season, the hype around the game has elevated it to must-watch TV.

Connelly’s predictive model is calling for a 46-17 Oregon win. It gives the Buffaloes just a 5% chance of pulling off the upset and keeping their unbeaten record intact.

That’s a big prediction.

Oregon opened around a 21-point favorite over the Buffs at most sportsbooks, and that was met with raised eyebrows. Led by quarterback Shedeur Sanders, Colorado has been one of the nation’s top scoring offenses through three games.

Sanders ranks second nationally in passing, with 1,251 yards and 10 touchdowns through his first three FBS games. He’s completing 78.7% of his passes and has only been intercepted once.

But CU isn’t without flaws.

The Buffs have no semblance of a run game — 129th in rushing efficiency, 105th in attempts — and they’re inside the bottom 25 nationally in overall defensive efficiency, yielding 6 yards per play.

The Ducks hold the nation’s seventh-ranked offense by efficiency (at 8.2 yards per play) and have been just about unbeatable at home in recent years.

Kickoff is set for 12:30 p.m. PT on ABC.