Oregon and Utah face off at Autzen Stadium Saturday evening for a contest that features Pac-12 title implications as well as some good old-fashioned revenge. Oregon wants payback after last year’s results to Utah in both the regular season and the 2021 Pac-12 Championship Game. It’s also angry after last week’s 37-34 loss to Washington.

Utah is out to prove it’s still very much the threat to repeat as Pac-12 title winners everyone thought it was in the preseason. Earlier losses to Florida and UCLA have the Utes flying somewhat under the radar; they’re respected in the polls, but not largely viewed as a likely title game participant.

With USC still having College Football Playoff hopes, most on the East Coast will watch USC-UCLA at 8 p.m. ET on FOX and then go to bed. Doing so would mean missing one of the best games on the schedule this weekend.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ is calling for a 33-31 Oregon win. It gives the Ducks just a 55% chance of victory, though. Unsurprisingly, Connelly’s model is expecting a close game.

And he doesn’t necessarily think the absence of quarterback Bo Nix dooms the Ducks. Here’s what he wrote on the game:

The Ducks might not be hopeless without him, however. They still rank first in rushing success rate thanks to the work of Bucky Irving and Noah Whittington (combined: 1,451 yards, six TDs), and Utah’s run defense has been shockingly bad this season (100th in rushing success rate allowed). With or without Nix, the Ducks will likely lean on the short game, and it should work well.

Oregon’s solid run defense could throw a kink into Utah’s offensive plans at times, but Cam Rising should find opportunities through the air against a defense that ranks 120th in passing success rate allowed and gave up 408 yards to Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. last week. In Utah’s thrilling 43-42 win over USC in October, Rising completed 15 of 15 passes to tight end Dalton Kincaid for 217 yards and a touchdown. Kincaid and wideout Devaughn Vele have been key to a unique and physical passing game that doesn’t produce enough big plays but overruns teams with efficiency.

Nix’s status is up in the air this week after a hit late against Washington briefly knocked him out of the game.

“He’s preparing himself as if he can go,” coach Dan Lanning said earlier this week. “But we’ve also got some other guys ready to go if needed.”

But wideout Kris Hutson might have tipped Oregon’s hand when he said Nix was down, so “it’s the next man up.” That next man would be second-year freshman Ty Thompson.

We’ll find out who it is at kickoff, set Saturday for 7:30 p.m. PT on ESPN.