Bill Connelly’s SP+ has Oregon as a two-score winner on Saturday against Texas Tech.

The predictive model has the 13th-ranked Ducks beating the Red Raiders 38-26 on the road. It gives Oregon a 76% chance of winning. Connelly wrote this on the game:

This one obviously lost some luster with Texas Tech’s overtime loss at Wyoming last week, but the Red Raiders outgained the Cowboys by 1.3 yards per play and were done in only by a series of (probably unsustainably bad) red zone and special teams miscues. Oregon’s awesome but better be ready for a big fight.

Oregon won its opener last Saturday in blowout fashion, 81-7 over Portland State. The 81 points set a new program record for scoring in a single game. Led by quarterback Bo Nix and a multi-faceted ground game, the Ducks scored touchdowns on each of their first nine possessions and ran up over 700 yards of offense.

Texas Tech’s opener was not quite as sunny.

The Red Raiders lost to Wyoming in double-overtime last week, 35-33. Tech raced out to a 17-0 lead on the road after one quarter, but scored just three points the rest of regulation.

Quarterback Tyler Shough — who led the Ducks to a 2020 Pac-12 title — completed 31 of his 47 passes for 338 yards and three touchdowns in the losing effort.

Tech entered the 2023 season as a trendy team in the Big 12. An unsightly nonconference loss to open the season certainly took some of the sting out of this Week 2 matchup, but Oregon should still be tested in Lubbock. Certainly much more than it was in Week 1.

Kickoff is at 4 p.m. PT on FOX.