Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes No. 9 Oregon to cover a huge spread this weekend.

The predictive model is calling for a 44-12 Oregon win. It gives Stanford just a 4% chance of pulling the upset at home. Here’s what Connelly wrote on the game:

This is a historical tripping point for Oregon — the Ducks have lost three of their past four games at Stanford as favorites. Stanford showed some signs of life against Arizona, too. So … maybe?

No, probably not. Oregon’s absolutely ruthless right now.

The Ducks are coming off a 42-6 win over Colorado in Week 4.

It was the kind of victory that showed a couple of things. First, Colorado’s flaws are very real. Second, and more important for Oregon’s purposes, this Ducks team is also very real.

Earlier this week, FOX’s Joel Klatt pointed out something important that many others seemed to miss with regard to Dan Lanning’s pregame speech. Lanning doesn’t dare make that speech in front of ABC cameras unless he knows what his team is about to do.

Lanning knew he had a team that would answer the challenge and blast the Buffs. He knew he had a team that could rattle off a 36-point win in a ranked-on-ranked game.

That should serve as an illustrative moment for the rest of the conference. The Ducks are elite.

Stanford, which has lost three in a row, now gets to try and slow down the Ducks.

Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. PT on the Pac-12 Network.