Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes the Oregon Ducks to leave Salt Lake City with a win this weekend.

The eighth-ranked Ducks take on the 13th-ranked Utah Utes in a crucial game for both teams. The winner will take another step closer to the Pac-12 title game while the loser will be left with their second conference loss — not exactly closing the door on a run, but making the path much more difficult.

Oregon is favored in the matchup by 6.5 in the matchup. Connelly’s predictive model has the Ducks winning 31-25.

It gives Utah a 36% chance to win at home.

Kyle Whittingham has said multiple times before and during this season he’s not sure a Pac-12 team will make it out of conference play unbeaten in large part because of how difficult it has been to go on the road and win in league play.

Oregon has been nearly unstoppable at home for years. Utah’s homefield advantage at Rice-Eccles Stadium, though, is not to be overlooked.

The Utes are 30-2 at home since the start of the 2018 season. One of those losses came to a Washington team that went to the Rose Bowl in 2018. The other was in the opener of the 2020 season when Utah was decimated by COVID cases.

Utah has won 18 straight games at home since.

Kickoff is set for 12:30 p.m. PT on FOX.