Oregon is the second-most likely team to win the 2022 Pac-12 title, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).

A simulation-based model, FPI gives the Ducks a 19.2% chance to win the league under first-year head coach Dan Lanning. FPI currently has the Ducks ranked 23rd nationally, a bit below where coaches slotted Oregon in the preseason AFCA Coaches Poll, but still firmly among the top teams in the sport for the new season.

There’s only a 2.6% chance Oregon fails to reach six wins in Lanning’s first season at the helm, according to FPI. And the model thinks Oregon can win eight or nine games based on the way its schedule lays out.

FPI views the season-opener against Georgia as a likely loss for the Ducks, but it would make Oregon the favorite in each of its final 11 games, including an anticipated rematch with Utah in Eugene on Nov. 19. Here’s how FPI views the Ducks’ chance of winning each game on the 2022 schedule:

  • Sept. 3 vs. Georgia — 8.5% chance to win
  • Sept. 10 vs. Eastern Washington — 96.6% chance to win
  • Sept. 17 vs. BYU — 74.1% chance to win
  • Sept. 24 at Washington State — 76.7% chance to win
  • Oct. 1 vs. Stanford — 82.0% chance to win
  • Oct. 8 at Arizona — 81.8% chance to win
  • Oct. 22 vs. UCLA — 69.9% chance to win
  • Oct. 29 at Cal — 73.5% chance to win
  • Nov. 5 at Colorado — 78.2% chance to win
  • Nov. 12 vs. Washington — 73.7% chance to win
  • Nov. 19 vs. Utah — 52.4% chance to win
  • Nov. 26 at Oregon State — 68.1% chance to win

With Lanning in charge, Oregon figures to produce a top-flight defense. Led by Noah Sewell and Brandon Dorlus, established standouts in the front seven, there aren’t a ton of questions about the Ducks on that side of the ball. Maybe there’s intrigue in how the secondary reloads, but Oregon brought in former Colorado corner Christian Gonzalez from the transfer portal to lock down one side of the field and there are plenty of blue-chip youngsters waiting for their shot opposite him.

What happens with the Duck offense will be one of the big storylines of the entire Pac-12 season. Oregon brought in Kenny Dillingham to coordinate the offense and reunited him with former Auburn quarterback Bo Nix. The duo worked together at Auburn in 2019 when Nix was named the SEC Freshman of the Year.

Nix is contending with Ty Thompson and Jay Butterfield during fall camp for the starting job at quarterback. Oregon is also breaking in some talented youngsters at the skill positions. If that side of the ball takes off, Oregon could be in for another 10-win campaign.