Washington can produce an 11-win season for just the third time since 2000 if it can pull off a win Thursday night at the Alamo Bowl against No. 20 Texas.

The 12th-ranked Huskies closed out the regular season with a 10-2 record, but a midseason stumble in Tempe, Arizona kept them out of the Pac-12 title game. A Utah win over USC in the title fight then kept the Huskies out of the Rose Bowl.

As UW approaches kickoff, it doesn’t seem like there’s any complacency within the group. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has already announced he’ll be back for 2023, and he and his teammates want to use Thursday’s contest with Texas as a springboard.

“We want to close out this season and try to get that 11th win,” coach Kalen DeBoer said this week.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ model is actually going against the Huskies, though.

The predictive model is calling for a 34-26 Texas win. It gives the Longhorns a 66% chance of winning.

SP+ is very high on Texas, and has been for most of the season. The model has the 8-4 Longhorns ranked seventh nationally, ahead of Big 12 champ Kansas State, ahead of Penn State, and ahead of Utah in the back end of the top 10.

But the Texas team that takes the field against UW will look a little different than it did in the regular season.

Most notably, Texas will be without leading running back Bijan Robinson, who opted out of the bowl game to get ready for the NFL Draft. Robinson led the Big 12 in rushing this season with 1,508 yards and 18 touchdowns. His primary backup, Roschon Johnson, will also sit out the game. Those two combined for 351 rushing attempts this season. The next-leading back on the roster got 24 carries.

Kickoff in the game is set for 6 p.m. PT on ESPN.