Bill Connelly’s SP+ predicts a rout in Seattle this weekend.

The predictive model has No. 8 Washington beating Cal 38-17 to open up Pac-12 play. It gives the Golden Bears just an 11% chance of pulling the upset on the unbeaten Huskies.

Washington has won two in a row in the series, but Cal has been pretty formidable at Husky Stadium in recent years. The Bears won 20-19 in 2019 and they beat the Huskies 30-24 in 2015. (Cal is 2-2 in its last four trips to Husky Stadium.)

But pulling off an upset this weekend is a tall task for the 2-1 Bears.

Washington is playing like one of the best teams in the country.

The Huskies are eighth nationally in scoring offense and they’ve broken 40 in each of their first three games. Last weekend, they blasted Michigan State on the road, 41-7, as quarterback Michael Penix Jr. continued his flamethrower start to the 2023 campaign.

Led by Penix, Washington is averaging 9.5 yards per play through three games. The Huskies rank first nationally in offensive efficiency because their pass game is the most explosive in college football.

Take away Air Force’s 19.3 yards-per-pass clip (because the team has thrown 10 passes in three games) and Washington’s 12.2 yards per pass leads the country. Penix once again leads the country in passing, with 1,332 yards and 12 touchdowns in three games.

He’s well on his way to becoming the school’s first 5,000-yard passer in program history.

Cal’s pass defense is middle-of-the-road in most metrics, and it has yet to face a passing attack that will apply the kind of stress Washington’s will. However, the Golden Bears have forced five interceptions in three games, and if they stand a chance on Saturday, they’ll need to bring that good luck to Husky Stadium.

Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. PT on ESPN.