ESPN’s SP+ predictive metric gave its take on the upcoming Pac-12 clash between Washington and Arizona this weekend.

SP+ does not foresee an upset in this one, as it has the Huskies coming out on top 40-22, hitting the nail on the 18-point spread. The predictive model gives Arizona just a 15% chance of winning.

Kalen DeBoer’s Washington team has lived up to its preseason hype. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is an early Heisman favorite after throwing for 1,636 yards and 16 touchdowns through just four games.

Penix and a trio of potential NFL receivers — Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan — have terrorized opposing defenses this season, averaging 467 yards per game through the air. UW’s 59-32 win over Cal last week was the closest margin of victory for the Huskies this season.

Arizona was considered a dark horse in the loaded Pac-12 entering the season, as third-year head coach Jedd Fisch returned a cast of stars on offense and figured to field a much-improved defense.

After tuning up with a 38-3 win over Northern Arizona to open the season, Jayden de Laura tossed 4 interceptions but still nearly rallied his team to a win in Starkville. Instead, the Wildcats fell 31-24 in overtime to Mississippi State, but Arizona responded by beating UTEP and narrowly taking down Stanford last week.

With de Laura and a strong receiver core of their own headlined by Jacob Cowing and Tetairoa McMillan, the Wildcats have the firepower to get into a shootout with Washington. That’s if de Laura plays.

Saturday’s game will take place at 7 p.m. PT and can be found on the Pac-12 Network.