Bill Connelly’s SP+ expects Washington to win a tight one in Los Angeles on Saturday.

The fifth-ranked Huskies take their unbeaten record on the road in Week 10 to face the 20th-ranked USC Trojans. USC snapped a two-game losing skid last week with a 50-49 win over Cal, but the Trojans nearly made it three in a row and put themselves behind the eight-ball in the Pac-12 title race.

As it stands, though, USC enters Week 10 with just one conference loss on the ledger. Even in spite of all the struggles and negativity in recent weeks, a win over Washington would give USC a leg up in the Pac-12 title race.

Connelly’s predictive model is predicting a 35-32 win for Washington. It gives USC a 44% chance to pull the upset.

Points are expected. Though SP+ is predicting a game in the 30s, a game that reaches all the way into the 40s would surprise absolutely no one.

USC and Washington both bring top-10 scoring offenses into the matchup. USC has given up 43 points a game over its last five. Washington has given up more than 30 in three of its last five.

In a high-profile quarterback between Michael Penix Jr. and Caleb Williams — the top two passers in college football by yardage — whoever blinks first might decide things. Which defense can force a turnover? Which defense can force a mistake? Washington has 12 turnovers this season, USC 11.

USC has turned the football over in each of its last six. Washington has six turnovers in its last two.

Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. PT on ABC.