Bill Connelly’s SP+ believes the massive battle in Corvallis this weekend between No. 5 Washington and No. 11 Oregon State is as close to a coin flip as possible.

The predictive model is calling for a 31-31 game, but it gives UW a 0.3-point edge in the matchup. Oregon State has a 49% chance of pulling the upset.

Here’s what Connelly wrote about the game in his Week 12 preview:

Washington’s defense allows 6.3 yards per dropback, 63rd nationally. Perhaps more importantly, the Huskies also rank a ghastly 127th in rushing success rate. They generate almost no disruption up front — 131st in both sacks per dropback and stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) — and they primarily rely on big-play prevention and the eventual third-and-long stop to get off the field. They do the bend-don’t-break thing reasonably well, but OSU’s offense is relentless, especially in the red zone.

Oregon State has overachieved against SP+ projections by 12.4 points per game at home in 2023. All signs point to the Beavers giving the Huskies their stiffest test of the season on Saturday night in Corvallis.

Washington (10-0, 7-0 Pac-12) has made it through the first 10 weeks of a season unscathed for just the second time in program history. The College Football Playoff is within reach. A spot in the Pac-12 title game can get locked up. But UW has rarely looked convincing since beating Oregon a month ago.

The Huskies outlasted Arizona State, outscored Stanford, capitalized on a crucial mistake from Caleb Williams to top USC, and then forced two second-half turnovers last week to get by Utah.

Oregon State (8-2, 5-2 Pac-12), meanwhile, is rolling into what might arguably be one of the biggest games in Reser Stadium history. The Beavs completely dismantled Stanford a week ago, 62-17, to set up a “do or die” stretch over their last two games. A chance to play for the Pac-12 title is on the line, but Oregon State has to beat UW and then beat Oregon in the regular season finale.

Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. PT on ABC.