Bill Connelly’s SP+ predicts a Texas victory in the Sugar Bowl.

The ESPN writer’s predictive model has No. 3 Texas beating No. 2 Washington 33-27 in the College Football Playoff semifinals on Monday. It gives the unbeaten Huskies a 36% chance of beating the 12-1 Longhorns.

Here’s what Connelly wrote about the game in his bowl preview:

In his two years as Texas’ starting quarterback, Quinn Ewers has produced a Total QBR of higher than 90 in five games. One was against Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship. Three others were against either Alabama (twice) or Red River rival Oklahoma (once). He’s been at his absolute best in the biggest games he’s played, and the Sugar Bowl against Washington will be the biggest yet.

Big Game Quinn, meet Big Game Mike. Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. has played five games against ranked opponents this season. He produced a Total QBR of 88.5 in them and threw for at least 300 yards three times. In the fourth quarter of these games, he completed 69% of his passes with two touchdowns, no interceptions and only one sack. The better Penix and his receivers have had to be, the better they’ve been.

Texas’ run defense and Washington’s secondary are both strong, but signs point to a Sugar Bowl track meet. Who does that favor?

If a track meet breaks out, Washington has to like its chances. All season long, no one has been able to contain Washington’s nation-leading passing attack because no one has had a collection of defensive backs good enough to keep the outrageous trio of Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan in check.

Odunze (a Biletnikoff finalist) and Polk each cleared 1,000 yards receiving this season. McMillan was on pace for a 1,300-plus-yard season through the nonconference slate until an injury robbed him of most of the year and nagged all the way through the remainder of the regular season.

McMillan bounced back with a 131-yard performance in the Pac-12 title game. Odunze enters with four consecutive 100-yard games and nine total on the season. Polk has six himself.

If a track meet breaks out, that might favor the Huskies. We’ll see. Kickoff on Monday is set for 5:45 p.m. on ESPN.