Bill Connelly’s SP+ expects another blowout in this year’s Apple Cup.

The unbeaten and unblemished Washington Huskies finally cracked the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings this week following a 22-20 road win over Oregon State in Week 12. Now, a Pac-12 title game ticket is punched, the Playoff is within reach, and Washington State is all that stands between Kalen DeBoer’s bunch and the program’s second-ever 12-0 regular season.

Connelly’s predictive model has UW rolling to a 40-23 victory. It gives the Cougars a 17% chance to pull off what would be a seismic upset in Seattle. Here’s what Connelly wrote about the game in his Week 13 preview:

Was Washington State’s blowout of Colorado last week due more to a rebounding Wazzu or a collapsing Colorado? The answer will determine whether this is a game.

The Cougars had lost six in a row before the 56-14 win, and it wasn’t just a “lose to a bunch of good teams because your conference is awesome” situation. They drastically underachieved against projections, too. Both the offense and defense looked like shells of their September selves. But Colorado provided them a get-right opportunity, and a far more confident Cougs team now travels to Seattle.

Washington’s terribly nondisruptive defensive front is going to eventually keep them from winning a national title, but the team proved its maturity and perseverance again against Oregon State, and both the offense and secondary proved they can still make plays.

The Huskies have won 18 straight games dating back to last season. They haven’t lost a home game since DeBoer came to town. And they beat the Cougs in Pullman 51-33 last year.

Washington State also hasn’t inspired much confidence of late. Prior to a 56-14 win over Colorado last week, Wazzu had lost six straight. Things bottomed out in a 10-7 loss to Stanford on Nov. 4. The win over the equally troubled Buffs was also aided by multiple injuries to Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders that forced him to exit in the second quarter.

The offensive line Washington State faces in Seattle will be night and day compared to Colorado’s. This season, they’ve built a fortress around Michael Penix Jr. — who has only been sacked seven times in 11 games.

Kickoff between the two rivals is set for 1 p.m. PT on FOX.