Despite a 4-8 record a year ago, ESPN’s Football Power Index was never fully out on the Washington Huskies.

Of the 46 teams that finished with fewer than six wins, Washington was one of only five that held inside the top half of the FBS membership in FPI to close out the year. The Huskies finished 62nd. To open the new season, they sit 48th. Call it the Kalen DeBoer bump.

A simulation-based model, FPI likes the Huskies to win at least six games in 2022. It gives UW a 90.6% chance of reaching bowl eligibility. Washington’s expected win total last season—based on point differential—was 5.6, and in winning just four, it had one of the 10 largest gaps between actual and expected. Bad luck? Perhaps. That difference would suggest Washington improves in 2022.

Returning talent, improved scheme, strong coaching staff… the Huskies should be improved. And that’s reflected in their FPI standing. Using FPI as a baseline, UW should be favored in eight of its 12 games this season.

Here’s how FPI views the Huskies’ chance of winning each game on the 2022 schedule:

  • Sept. 3 vs. Kent State — 91.6% chance to win
  • Sept. 10 vs. Portland State — 98.2% chance to win
  • Sept. 17 vs. Michigan State — 39.3% chance to win
  • Sept. 24 vs. Stanford — 66.4% chance to win
  • Sept. 30 at UCLA — 33.5% chance to win
  • Oct. 8 at Arizona State — 42.2% chance to win
  • Oct. 15 vs. Arizona — 84.1% chance to win
  • Oct. 22 at Cal — 56.7% chance to win
  • Nov. 4 vs. Oregon State — 66.2% chance to win
  • Nov. 12 at Oregon — 26.3% chance to win
  • Nov. 19 vs. Colorado — 79.9% chance to win
  • Nov. 26 at Washington State — 61.9% chance to win

The projected win total sits at 7.5. FPI also views the Washington schedule as the second-easiest in the Pac-12.

DeBoer will have his chance to prove preseason expectations right when the year begins on Sept. 3.