Final thoughts and a prediction for Utah's season-opener against Florida
We’re blessed.
This is the type of season-opener that I absolutely love to see in college football. We’ve got a premier program with a coach making his debut against the trendiest Playoff pick, who will travel from across the country. Call Utah-Florida the Urban Meyer Bowl, call it the Mohamoud Diabate Bowl, call it whatever. Just call it an awesome way to kick off the 2022 season.
Fortunately for us, the fans of this crazy sport, this is just the beginning of the shift back to elite home-and-home matchups. Saturday night’s showdown in The Swamp is the beginning of the Billy Napier era, and perhaps the beginning of Kyle Whittingham’s best season in program history.
Utah, fresh off a Rose Bowl berth and a preseason No. 7 ranking, is only a 2.5-point favorite against a Florida team who is 3-9 in its Past 12 games against Power 5 competition. That’s telling. Or maybe it isn’t.
Let’s dig into this juicy matchup:
1. I’m here for the entire Anthony Richardson experience
Because we didn’t get it last year.
We instead got 2 instances with Richardson attempting double-digit pass attempts. His first start came against arguably the best defense of the 21st century and because of injuries/Dan Mullen’s stubbornness to stick with Emory Jones, Richardson’s role was limited in 2021.
That’s old news. What’s relevant now is that Napier is all in on maximizing Richardson’s potential. Like, the same potential that had us making Dak Prescott comparisons last September. Richardson showed that in flashes. He also showed a propensity for turning the ball over. He threw an interception once every 13 passes. That number, obviously, has to turn around. History tells us it should with any quarterback who is now getting regular reps, especially with Napier in his ear.
Utah’s 2022 defense won’t be at the level of 2021 Georgia, but it won’t be a picnic. It never is with Whittingham’s group. The Utes lost star linebacker Devin Lloyd, but it’s still a defense with 4 preseason All-Pac-12 selections. Utah never finished worst than No. 46 in scoring during the Playoff era, and I wouldn’t expect 2022 to be the first.
It’d be a surprise to see Richardson play a perfectly clean game. This is where you need to see those all-world abilities coupled with smart decisions. As in, don’t take a sack on 3rd down to move out of field goal range. Get out of bounds late in the first half on a quarterback keeper to not waste 15 extra seconds when you don’t have a timeout. Be willing to take the check down instead of forcing a throw into traffic.
A couple of viral plays won’t win Florida this game. The Richardson experience is gonna have those, win or lose. Doing those little things is what’ll take him — and the Gators’ new offense — to the next level.
2. And I’m here for the entire Cameron Rising experience, too
It’s easy to forget that Rising wasn’t even Utah’s QB1 to start 2021. The Texas transfer patiently waited behind Charlie Brewer, and then was essentially Pac-12 Hendon Hooker in the final 2 months of the regular season. His play was the reason Utah’s 2021 season turned around, and he’s a huge reason why so many are high on the Utes heading into 2022. Rising might not be quite as talented as Richardson as a thrower or as a runner, but he’s more than capable of checking both of those boxes.
https://twitter.com/CFBallLegends/status/1564052131748913155?s=20&t=X0TvjEOWl6NTUyHPu78dSw
Way too early, but one QB that I will have my eye on this coming season is Utah Cameron Rising. He can fit the ball in tight spaces, gives his weapons a chance to make a play on the ball, athletic feet to help move around in pocket and extends plays! pic.twitter.com/zQLM6gKPjQ
— Robert Cardona (@CARDONAFAM29) April 17, 2022
It’s daunting to think that this new-look Florida defense, which had 2 consecutive rough seasons, will debut against 1 of the 10 best quarterbacks returning in America. He and Tavion Thomas are one of the best 1-2 punches in the country, so this isn’t a situation where Florida can drop 8 into coverage and assume that’ll contain Rising. In 2021, Utah gained 3,041 rushing yards and 3,000 passing yards en route to a top-15 offense.
Florida needs those veteran front-7 guys like Ventrell Miller, Brenton Cox and Gervon Dexter to set the tone. If they’re playing on their heels from the jump, it could be a long night against Rising and Co.
3. Utah’s tight ends are a problem
Here’s a wild stat for you. There were 7 Pac-12 players who caught at least 6 touchdowns last year. Three of them are back in 2022 … and 2 of them are Utah tight ends.
That’s right. Dalton Kincaid and Brant Kuithe combined for 14 touchdown catches last year. Eleven of those came via Rising. In other words, more than half of his touchdown passes went to Utah’s elite tight end duo. For all the talk about Georgia’s tight end room being the best in the country, Utah is definitely in that conversation.
Here’s the crazy thing. In addition to Kincaid and Kuithe, Whittingham went out and signed Idaho tight end Logan Kendall, who PFF graded as the No. 8 tight end in the country because of his elite run-blocking skills. He’ll be to Utah what John FitzPatrick was to Georgia.
Like Georgia, Utah won’t be afraid to utilize 13 personnel (1 running back, 3 tight ends). Whittingham talked openly about their desire to operate out of those formations with such depth at the position. Both Kincaid and Kuithe played north of 600 snaps last year. The only other Power 5 team with multiple tight ends who played at least 600 snaps was Oregon State and Iowa State, but those 4 guys had 12 touchdowns combined.
Florida’s red-zone defense last year was an issue, yet despite the Todd Grantham-era flaws, the Gators only allowed 3 receiving touchdowns to Power 5 tight ends, and nobody gained 70 yards. Utah would love to utilize the play-action game to attack the middle of the field and hit those tight ends in the seam.
This is the type of play Florida has to be ready to defend:
I like Utah TE Dalton Kincaid – he's got some burst and catches everything, they line him up all over pic.twitter.com/Z0D47dweui
— Connor Rogers (@ConnorJRogers) December 8, 2021
A quiet day from Utah’s tight ends would be a huge victory for Patrick Toney in his Florida debut.
4. The Mohamoud Diabate reunion is … interesting
I love to think that when guys hit the portal, they look on the schedule of any team targeting them so that they can possibly get a reunion against their former team. It’s the Ty Storey rule. Diabate might not have seen that as a factor in his decision to transfer from Florida to Utah, but the well-spoken veteran linebacker will find himself in familiar territory on Saturday night.
In a previous world, perhaps Florida would’ve tried to block Diabate from transferring to Utah. Then again, it’s a new coaching staff with new schemes, so who really cares? In 2022, we’ll get Diabate facing his former team. He said he’s looking forward to experiencing the “old, janky” Florida visiting locker room:
.@Utah_Football linebacker Mo Diabate @MDiabate11 is so excited to get back to Florida, he can almost taste it…or at least smell it. https://t.co/mQiLpiCn4I pic.twitter.com/0Z1lKL4HBN
— Dana Greene (@dana_greene) August 31, 2022
Diabate was always a breakout candidate in Todd Grantham’s scheme, yet he never truly blossomed into the star. He was put in a tough spot in 2021 playing middle linebacker for the injured Miller. Diabate is more natural as an edge-rusher, and with a Utah scheme that’ll allow him to play all over the place, he’ll get an opportunity to utilize those skills on Saturday against Richardson.
It’s probably unfair to compare him to the aforementioned Lloyd, who was a first-team All-American and a 1st round pick of the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 2022 NFL Draft. Diabate will have plenty of eyes on him on Saturday night. He’ll have a big say in whether Richardson is forced into mistakes.
5. I’ll be thoroughly impressed if Florida’s ground game sets the tone
It’s by no means a given that Richardson and Louisiana transfer Montrell Johnson instantly step in and combine for 200 rushing yards. Utah had a top-20 run defense for the 4th consecutive year, and no opponent gained more than 110 rushing yards in the final 6 games. That’s a Whittingham staple. The last time Utah finished outside the top 30 against the run was 2014 … when the Utes finished No. 42 and still allowed just 12 rushing scores all season. You get what I’m saying. Utah doesn’t mess around in the trenches.
There was frustration throughout the Mullen era about the lack of offensive line progression. Only 2 Florida offensive linemen were drafted during his time in Gainesville, and it was Jawaan Taylor (he spent 1 year in Mullen’s offense) and 6th rounder Stone Forsythe. Having more consistent play up front will be a priority for Napier.
Florida hasn’t had a 1,000-yard back in 7 years. Johnson could end that streak, but hitting the century mark against this Utah defense would be no small feat.
6. Don’t overreact either way to Billy Napier’s start
I know there are plenty of Florida fans who have realistic Year 1 expectations. This message isn’t for you. It’s for the group who will overreact to Saturday night’s festivities and put way too much stock in the win-loss record in Year 1. I keep coming back to this. Florida’s last 2 coaches both won 10 games in Year 1, yet neither reached Year 5. Florida coaches have actually fared pretty well in Year 1 in the post-Steve Spurrier era:
- Ron Zook, 8-5
- Urban Meyer, 9-3
- Will Muschamp, 7-6
- Jim McElwain, 10-4
- Dan Mullen, 10-3
Yes, I did think about how crazy it is that Florida had all of that turnover since Meyer left Utah for Florida after the 2004 season. Meanwhile, Meyer’s successor (Whittingham) is still at the top of his game.
It’s entirely possible that Napier’s Year 1 is more in Muschamp territory than McElwain or Mullen. That’s fine. The guy preached patience for a reason, and when you’re in the early stages of being able to show off a new $85 million facility, that means something. More important is Napier’s ability to coach up Richardson, to recruit the powerhouse in-state programs and make key staffing decisions at season’s end. Those 3 things matter more than whether Florida plays in the Outback Bowl vs. the Texas Bowl.
Alternatively, a 9- or 10-win season shouldn’t be met with sky-high expectations. We have decades of data that show us a team’s Year 1 record doesn’t determine a coach’s fate. So why then assume a 10-win season equals an SEC title in Year 2 or Year 3?
If Napier upsets Utah — it would be an upset — keep those expectations in check. I know how difficult that would be, but a long road awaits the new Florida coach.
A prediction … Utah 31, Florida 24
Hey, I have Utah reaching the Playoff. I wasn’t about to pick the Utes to fall in the opener.
I think we’ll get at least 2 moments from Richardson where we take a step back and run through some historical comps (just please don’t make Cam Newton comps). That’s always on the table for him. But I think we see Utah test that unproven Florida run defense and then Rising works the middle of the field in the red zone to get those tight ends involved. Richardson makes an ill-advised through late that costs Florida a shot at 1-0.
I realize this would be an unpopular opinion in Gainesville, but there would be a lot of positives to take from a potential 1-score loss to the Utes. That’s a team with a proven identity who has big-game experience and is hoping to deliver its best season since it joined the Power 5. Weaker conference or not, Utah is no pushover. That style is supposed to travel.
It sets up for a nice barometer game for Florida. Sure, it might not test things like depth and how the Gators perform on the road, but it should at least set some expectations for Richardson and the defense. There’s plenty of time for that.
Florida has only opened with a loss once since Spurrier returned to coach his alma mater back in 1990. It was the opener against Michigan in Dallas back in 2017 when McElwain was in the beginning of the end of his time in Gainesville. If Napier comes up short, it’ll have a much different feel to it.
Or then again, maybe Napier is about to prove me — and plenty of others — wrong on Saturday night. That wouldn’t be a bad trend to start.