Essentially, Bill Connelly’s SP+ model views this week’s top-25, Pac-12-title-race-influencing clash in the Rose Bowl as a coin flip.

Connelly’s predictive model is picking the 11th-ranked Utah Utes to hand No. 18 UCLA its first loss of the season, but by the slimmest of margins. SP+ has the final score as Utah 30.8, UCLA 30.6. That would read as the model telling you this is two very evenly-matched teams facing each other in a game that will, well, have the slimmest of margins.

So… overtime? Let’s just play all night long at the Rose Bowl.

UCLA enters into the matchup at 5-0, having just dispatched then-No. 15 Washington last week. For most of three quarters, the Bruins dominated a previously-unbeaten Washington squad. At one point, they held a 40-16 lead. UW found some offensive rhythm in the fourth quarter and put touchdown drives together to give itself a chance late, but the defense couldn’t get UCLA’s offense off the field at the end and the Bruins were able to drain away the clock for a 40-32 win.

Utah has been blitzing teams since its season-opening loss to Florida in The Swamp. The Utes have won four straight games — all of them by at least 20 points, the first time that’s happened in over a decade.

“I think we’ve gotten better each week since Week 1,” said Utah coach Kyle Whittingham on Monday. “We’ve talked about that plenty that we didn’t play our best football in Week 1. But since then, I think we’ve taken a step forward every single week, this past week included, obviously. If you want to try to win a championship, that’s got to happen. You’ve got to be on that upward trajectory from Game 1 to Game 12.”

UCLA has done the same. But the Bruins know that unblemished record can get dirty real fast.

“We put on the Utah tape, that’s our motivation,” said coach Chip Kelly this week. “They’re the defending champs in our conference for a reason, they’ve been really successful for a long, long time.”

Saturday should be a good one. Kickoff is set for 12:30 p.m. PT on FOX.