Bill Connelly’s SP+ has the 11th-ranked Utah Utes narrowly escaping No. 22 UCLA at home this weekend.

The predictive model has Utah pulling off a 29-26 win over the visiting Bruins. It gives UCLA a 41% chance of pulling the upset.

The big swing factor in the matchup is the status of Utah quarterback Cameron Rising. The Utes aren’t anywhere close to full strength, but Rising making his season debut would certainly put Utah in a good spot to walk away with a win at home.

Coach Kyle Whittingham said earlier in the week that Rising has been practicing and did a “great job” on Wednesday, but they won’t know his game status until about 24 hours out. The Utes don’t plan to make his availability public.

If Rising is unable to play, the Utes will be led once again by Nate Johnson, who started last week’s 31-7 win over Weber State and threw for 193 yards and one touchdown.

The Utes were tested in the nonconference — Florida in Week 1, Baylor on the road in Week 2 — but UCLA will provide something different. Quarterback Dante Moore engineered a 35-point first quarter the last time he was on the field, and he’ll represent the best quarterback Utah has seen thus far this season — by a wide margin.

Moore ranks third in the Pac-12 and 10th nationally with an 86.2 Total QBR.

Kickoff between Utah (3-0) and UCLA (3-0) is set for 12:30 p.m. PT on FOX.