Bill Connelly’s SP+ predicts Utah will suffer its first loss of the season on the road this Friday.

Connelly’s predictive model is calling for a 26-25 Oregon State victory over the Utes. It gives the Beavers a 53% chance of winning.

While Oregon State is on the high side in the model, a one-point margin makes the game effectively a toss-up. That’s right in line with the spread set by Vegas, and it’s fitting given Utah’s questions at quarterback.

Oregon State went 5-1 at home last season and it’s off to a 2-0 start this year.

Last year’s meeting between these two teams went to the Utes in Salt Lake City, 42-16. Quarterback Cameron Rising completed 19 of his 25 passes for 199 yards and three touchdowns while adding another 73 rushing yards and a fourth score on the ground.

Utah’s defense completely changed the complexion of the game in the first quarter with two interceptions off Chance Nolan, the second of which was returned for a score. The Utes got two more picks off Ben Gulbranson once he replaced Nolan.

The Beavers will hope for a similarly hot start to this game. If Utah is indeed down to its backup quarterback again, the crowd at Reser Stadium — this will be Oregon State’s Pac-12 home opener — could rattle Nate Johnson.

The Utes are coming off a 14-7 win over UCLA. The Beavers are coming off a 38-35 loss to Washington State. Both will be looking for better showings in Week 5.

Kickoff between the 10th-ranked Utes (4-0, 1-0 Pac-12) and the 19th-ranked Beavers (3-1, 0-1 Pac-12) is set for 6 p.m. PT on FS1 on Friday.