USC football predictions are starting to roll in.

On Wednesday, ESPN released predictions for every team’s “ceiling” and “floor” in its way-too-early top 25. For Southern Cal, ESPN is predicting a best-case scenario of 11-1 in the regular season. The worst case scenario for Lincoln Riley’s squad, per ESPN, is 8-4.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly wrote about the biggest variable at play for USC. Here’s his analysis:

Duh, defense. In six seasons as a head coach, Lincoln Riley has never produced an offensive SP+ ranking worse than fifth. He’s also only produced one defensive SP+ ranking better than 63rd. (In 2022, the Trojans were first and 87th, respectively.) With Heisman-winning quarterback Caleb Williams and what appears to be another good skill corps returning, it’s safe to say USC will again be elite offensively. But Riley and defensive coordinator Alex Grinch bear a significant burden of proof when it comes to stopping opponents. Can experience and a new truckload of transfers reverse a dreadful defensive reputation?

USC is coming off of a 11-3 season, which was its best mark since 2017. The Trojans made it to the Pac-12 Championship Game in Riley’s 1st season at the helm.

USC will be hoping to make another step forward in 2023, however. With Caleb Williams and other key players set to return, USC could contend for a place in the College Football Playoff.