The Crosstown Showdown gets another entry on Saturday, and it could go down as one of the biggest yet. No. 7 USC and No. 16 UCLA enter their annual rivalry clash as ranked peers for just the seventh time since 1988.

With a Trojan win, a ticket to the Pac-12 Championship Game in Las Vegas is punched and dreams of the College Football Playoff live on for another week. A Bruin win gives them consecutive victories in the series for the first time since 2012-14 and moves the program within one game of the Pac-12 title.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ has UCLA pulling the upset and winning 35-34. The actual difference between the two teams in the model is only half a point.

Here’s what Connelly wrote on the game:

In USC’s lone loss, the Trojans gave up 43 points at 7.3 yards per play; in UCLA’s two losses, the Bruins allowed 39.5 points per game and 7.1 yards per play. Two new defensive coordinators have produced only marginal improvement thus far.

There are some slight differences between the teams — USC’s offense is better in the red zone, UCLA does a better job of preventing big plays, and UCLA’s special teams unit has been more consistent (which has helped create some excellent field position advantages). But as with UCLA-Oregon a few weeks ago, this is a break-of-serve matchup: Any defensive stop, any forced field goal, is a win. It would be a surprise if either defense ended up with many wins.

It figures to be a quarterback showcase kind of game. USC’s Caleb Williams is tied with Austin Reed and Clayton Tune for the third-most passing touchdowns of any FBS quarterback on the season. And Williams has put up ridiculous production with just two turnovers.

Thompson-Robinson is on pace for 3,000 passing yards and 600 rushing yards.

They’re sixth (Williams) and eighth (DTR) nationally in Total QBR. They’re third (Williams) and seventh (DTR) nationally in expected points added.

We’ll see who gets the last laugh on Saturday. Kickoff is set for 5 p.m. PT on FOX.