Bill Connelly’s SP+ views Saturday’s game in Tempe as a near-automatic USC victory.

The predictive model has the fifth-ranked Trojans beating Arizona State 45-16 on Saturday evening. It gives the Sun Devils just a 5% chance of pulling the upset.

USC (3-0, 1-0 Pac-12) will be coming off an early bye week. The hope for coach Lincoln Riley is that the early break in the schedule doesn’t mess with the offensive rhythm USC enjoyed through the opening three games of the season.

Quarterback Caleb Williams has been phenomenal. He leads the country in yards per pass attempt (12.5), is tied with Michael Penix Jr. for second in passing touchdowns (12), and ranks fifth in completion rate (78.6).

Williams hasn’t been needed in a fourth quarter yet because he hasn’t yet been stopped in a first half.

Against Stanford, USC scored touchdowns on six of its seven first-half possessions. It held a 49-3 halftime lead after averaging 10.6 yards per play.

Against Nevada, USC scored touchdowns on five of its eight first-half possessions. It led 35-7 at the half after averaging 12.2 yards per play.

Arizona State (1-2) is coming off a 29-0 loss to Fresno State at home last weekend. ASU was embarrassed, and it’ll look to avoid another kind of showing on Saturday. But it’ll enter the contest with questions at quarterback. Jaden Rashada is out, and Trenton Bourguet — who started in place of Rashada against Fresno — is doubtful for the game.

That leaves Drew Pyne, who threw for 318 yards and three touchdowns against USC last year for Notre Dame. The Irish lost that game 38-27. Pyne only threw three incompletions in 26 attempts, but he was picked off once and saw the Irish outscored 10-0 in the first quarter.

If he’s the guy for ASU on Saturday, a better start is needed.

Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. PT on FOX.