Bill Connelly’s SP+ model has Louisville handing USC one final loss before the 2023 season officially concludes.

The Trojans, losers of five of their last six games, will meet the 15th-ranked Cardinals in the Holiday Bowl on Wednesday night. Louisville (10-3) played in the ACC Championship Game on Dec. 2 while USC (7-5) hasn’t played since a Nov. 18 loss to UCLA at home.

In the month-plus since that game, USC has hired three new assistants to Lincoln Riley’s staff, seen several young players opt for the transfer portal, and received word that Caleb Williams will not play in the bowl game. The Trojans will look different on the field, but Connelly’s predictive model has USC losing the game without factoring all of the change into the equation.

SP+ has Louisville winning 33-30. It gives the Cards a 57% chance of emerging with the victory.

USC hasn’t won a bowl game since winning the 2016 Rose Bowl. The Trojans went to the Cotton Bowl in 2017, the Holiday Bowl in 2019, and then back to the Cotton Bowl in 2022. The first two losses were by double-digits. Last year’s 46-45 loss to Tulane featured a 45-30 USC lead with 4:30 to play. Riley will want to avoid consecutive disappointments.

Kickoff is set for 5 p.m. PT on FOX.