Caleb Williams is entering this offseason as the projected No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

ESPN’s Todd McShay released his 1st mock of the offseason on Thursday morning, and he is projecting Williams to be selected 1st overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Williams, who won the Heisman Trophy in 2022, is expected to be one of the top passers in the country again this season. Last year, he threw for 4,537 yards and 42 touchdowns. He also led USC to the Pac-12 title game.

Here’s some analysis from McShay:

The Bucs are going into the 2023 season with Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask under center, but I don’t think either is the long-term plan — especially since Mayfield is on a cheap, one-year deal. Mayfield was last in Total QBR in 2022 (24.6), and Trask, a second-rounder in 2021, has thrown nine passes in the NFL. Williams is coming off a Heisman season, throwing for 4,537 yards last season. He has a good arm and excels at creating when things break down. He’s an exceptional QB prospect and would be worth the move up from No. 5 to get him.

Tampa is going into this offseason with Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask expected to compete for the starting job. The franchise is still looking for a longterm starting quarterback following Tom Brady’s retirement this offseason.

Williams beat out North Carolina’s Drake Maye for the top spot. Maye is expected to be a serious contender for the No. 1 pick throughout the 2024 draft process. McShay is projecting him as the 2nd quarterback off the board and the No. 3 overall pick to the Washington Commanders.

USC has not produced the No. 1 overall draft pick since Carson Palmer in 2003.