Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes the Arizona Wildcats, just not enough to pull another top-25 upset.

Arizona welcomes No. 19 UCLA to Tucson on Saturday, seeking a sixth win on the year and bowl eligibility for the first time since 2017. With consecutive wins over ranked Washington State and Oregon State squads, Arizona is as hot as any team in the Pac-12. The game against UCLA in Week 10 will be the fifth consecutive contest against a ranked opponent for the Wildcats. They’ve gone 2-2 thus far.

Connelly’s predictive model is calling for a 31-27 UCLA victory. It gives Arizona a 40% chance to pull the upset.

UCLA (6-2) has won back-to-back games by double digits. The Bruin defense feasted on Colorado’s overmatched offensive line last week in a 28-16 win, and the Bruin ground game pummeled a lackluster Stanford defense the week prior.

The two-game winning streak has also coincided with a switch from Dante Moore back to Ethan Garbers at quarterback. Garbers has completed 73% of his passes with four touchdowns and one interception since being reintegrated into the offense. After UCLA posted three straight games with a pick-six, steadier play at the QB spot has helped everything else run smoothly.

But Arizona will provide a much stiffer challenge than either Stanford or Colorado.

The Wildcats (5-3) are up to No. 32 in SP+’s rankings, bolstered by a top-15 offense. Noah Fifita has been exceptional since taking over at quarterback for Jayden de Laura. The Wildcats scored 27 points on Oregon State last week in a limited-possession game, and they topped 40 in each of the two games prior.

Arizona pulled an upset of a ranked UCLA team in Pasadena last season. We’ll see if the UA can do it again.

Kickoff between the two sides is set for 7:30 p.m. PT on FS1.