ESPN’s SP+ formula has predicted the outcome of the top-25 matchup between UCLA and Oregon State. The formula predicts a nail-biter, with a final score of 28-27 in favor of Oregon State. The Beavers are favored by 5 points as of Thursday night.

The SP+ formula is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency,” per its founder Bill Connelly.

Per SP+, the Beavers have a 53% implied win probability and should be favored by just over 1 point. The formula also thinks this game will go over the point total of 53.5.

The Beavers are 2-1 in Pac-12 play and 5-1 overall. The Bruins are 1-1 in conference play and 4-1 overall.

The Beavers’ lone loss came at Washington State while the Bruins’ loss came at the hands of the Utah Utes. Whoever wins this game will stay alive in a crowded Pac-12. With Oregon and Washington also playing each other this weekend, that’s another top team that will come away with a loss.

No. 18 UCLA and No. 15 Oregon State kick off at 5 p.m. PT (FOX) on Saturday from Corvallis.