ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has the Bruins ranked No. 41 in the country at the outset of the 2023 season.

There are five teams from the Pac-12 inside FPI’s Top 25. And UCLA closed out the 2022 season just outside that grouping (at No. 27). But the predictive model weighs returning production and recent recruiting heavily in its preseason rankings. The Bruins have some questions in both areas.

Chief among them: who replaces five-year starter Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback? Ethan Garbers could win the job as the most experienced man in the room when it comes to knowing and operating a Chip Kelly offense. Or the job could go to Kent State transfer Collin Schlee, who has experience as a starter, just not at the Power Five level or in a Kelly scheme.

Or the job could be won by former 5-star recruit Dante Moore. The Detroit native flipped from Oregon to UCLA in the 2023 signing class and became the second-highest-rated signee to join the Bruins in the internet recruiting era. Does Kelly turn the youngster loose right away or give him time to learn and grow?

The Bruins have some standouts returning on the defensive side of the football. And even though another year has brought another new defensive coordinator to Westwood, there’s optimism that side of the ball — led by Laiatu Latu, Darius Muasau, and the Murphy twins — can be a difference-maker in 2023.

But the quarterback spot is central to understanding what UCLA will look like in 2023, and it remains a mystery.

As such, FPI seems pretty neutral on Kelly’s squad. The model is predicting UCLA to go 7-5 or 8-4. It has the Bruins listed as favorites in nine of 12 regular-season games this fall.

Here’s where FPI puts the percentage chance of a UCLA victory at in each game on the schedule:

  • Sept. 2 vs. Coastal Carolina — 84.7% chance of winning
  • Sept. 9 at San Diego State — 72.7%
  • Sept. 16 vs. NC Central — 99.0%
  • Sept. 23 at Utah — 22.5%
  • Oct. 7 vs. Washington State — 74.7%
  • Oct. 14 at Oregon State — 30.9%
  • Oct. 21 at Stanford — 67.0%
  • Oct. 28 vs. Colorado — 84.8%
  • Nov. 4 at Arizona — 57.3%
  • Nov. 11 vs. Arizona State — 74.9%
  • Nov. 18 at USC — 16.4%
  • Nov. 25 vs. Cal — 64.6%