ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) sees at least eight wins on UCLA’s 2022 schedule. It gives the Bruins a 22% chance to make the Pac-12 championship game and a 5.5% chance to win the league.

UCLA is the clear No. 4 in the Pac-12 this upcoming season, according to FPI. On a neutral field, FPI says UCLA is only 0.9 points worse than USC, which is to say the game would be a virtual toss-up in the power model’s simulations.

Add in home field advantage for the Bruins, who will host the Trojans on Nov. 19, and FPI is picking UCLA to make it two in a row over its crosstown rivals.

Here’s how FPI views UCLA’s chance of winning each game on the schedule:

  • Sept. 3 vs. Bowling Green — 96.9% chance to win
  • Sept. 10 vs. Alabama State — 99.8% chance to win
  • Sept. 17 vs. South Alabama — 92.6% chance to win
  • Sept. 24 at Colorado — 69.9% chance to win
  • Sept. 30 (Fri.) vs. Washington — 66.5% chance to win
  • Oct. 8 vs. Utah — 41.6% chance to win
  • Oct. 22 at Oregon — 30.1% chance to win
  • Oct. 29 vs. Stanford — 74.1% chance to win
  • Nov. 5 at Arizona State — 50.6% chance to win
  • Nov. 12 vs. Arizona — 86.2% chance to win
  • Nov. 19 vs. USC — 54.3% chance to win
  • Nov. 25 (Fri.) at Cal — 64.1% chance to win

FPI would favor the Bruins in 10 of their 12 games this fall. In seven of those games, FPI—which builds its predictions off of 20,000 simulations—gives UCLA a percentage chance of winning greater than 65%.

With eight home games on the schedule and a weak nonconference slate, there’s a strong chance UCLA takes a 5-0 record into a matchup with Utah on Oct. 8. With a bye week after and a trip to Eugene on the heels of that rest week, UCLA can use the month of October to solidify itself as a Pac-12 title contender.

The Bruins have a 97% chance of reaching at least six wins, according to FPI, thanks to a schedule that ranks as the easiest among Power Five programs.

With Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zach Charbonnet back for another year, things are shaping up nicely for UCLA to build off last season’s eight-win campaign.