Gold: Predicting the Pac-12 bowl games, from the gambling mecca to the Granddaddy of Them All
There have been so many opt-outs and transfer portal entrants before bowl season that the air has been let out of the tires a little bit. Several Pac-12 stars will be nowhere near the sidelines. Who knows how to predict the unknown?
I’ll give it a shot anyway.
Now on to my predictions for every Pac-12 bowl game …
Las Vegas Bowl: Florida vs. No. 14 Oregon State
When: 11:30 a.m., Dec. 17, ESPN
Las Vegas betting odds favor the Beavers by 10 points, but that seems like a bit much. Oregon State will be tasked with preparing for a quarterback — former Ohio State transfer Jack Miller — who is completely different than the Gators’ starting quarterback all season in Anthony Richardson. Richardson opted out of the game in order to prepare for professional football, meaning Miller gets the reins, and the Arizona high school state record-holder in passing touchdowns (115) is sure to be amped to show what he can do.
The Beavers will have Ben Gulbranson under center after a 6-1 finish, when he took over for the since-departed Chance Nolan. Gulbranson didn’t do much through the air, throwing for 1,290 yards with 8 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Not much but win, that is, which Oregon State did a lot of in 2022. With a bowl win, the Beavers would clinch their first 10-win season since 2006 and just their 3rd ever.
Oregon State does have ample talent sitting this one out, including injured stud tight end Luke Musgrave and cornerback Rejzohn Wright, who suffered a thumb injury.
The Beavers should be able to pick up the Pac-12’s first postseason win, but it won’t be east.
Prediction: Beavers over Gators in a close one
Jimmy Kimmel L.A. Bowl: Washington State vs. Fresno State
When: 12:30 p.m., Dec. 17, ABC
Jake Haener returned from a mid-September injury suffered at the hands of USC in a 45-17 loss to lead the Bulldogs to 6 straight wins to close the season, including a 28-16 win over Boise State in the Mountain West Championship game. After shaking off a little rust with 2 interceptions and 7 sacks — albeit along with 394 yards yards and 3 touchdowns — in a 32-28 Oct. 29 win over San Diego State, Haener has been fantastic, throwing 11 touchdowns with no interceptions while scoring 2 rushing touchdowns.
He’ll be pitted in a fun head-to-head matchup with Washington State’s Cameron Ward, who did not quite live up to the massive preseason hype but was nonetheless a productive starter for the Cougars. Like Haener, Ward was remarkably careful with the ball down the stretch, throwing for 7 touchdowns and zero interceptions in the final 5 games, a stretch that included 188 passes thrown. Not exactly landmark numbers, but at least cautious. And he did have 4 rushing touchdowns in that period.
This one will come down to Washington State’s pass rush getting to Haener, and often. If they can, even without the services of NFL-bound Daiyan Henley, they’ve got a shot. If not, Haener reigns.
Prediction: Haener has a big day against reeling Cougars
Holiday Bowl: No. 15 Oregon vs. North Carolina
When: 5 p.m., Dec. 28, FOX
Holiday Bowl? More like the WHO-liday Bowl, if you know what I mean.
More than a dozen players have opted out or entered the transfer portal, along with both offensive coordinators. We’re not just talking about backups, either: North Carolina wideout Josh Downs will be out, as will Oregon’s fantastic cornerback Christian Gonzalez. It’ll probably just come down to quarterback play between the Tar Heels’ talented Drake Maye and the Ducks’ Bo Nix.
This is such a foreign setting for North Carolina — Oregon is just the Heels’ 6th Pac-12 foe and they’ve never played in a bowl game in California — that they’ll likely need to get over some jitters. The Ducks will just have to get over having a terrible pass defense.
Prediction: Oregon in a landslide
Alamo Bowl: No. 20 Texas vs. No. 12 Washington
When: 6 p.m., Dec. 29, ESPN
Now this is a classic mid-tier bowl matchup, even if we’ll miss several stars, including Texas running backs Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson. The Longhorns are favored in the game but with Michael Penix Jr. at the helm for the Huskies, I just don’t get that.
And it’s not just Penix. Washington’s top-flight wide receiver corps is comprised exclusively of underclassmen, and it’ll be exciting to see how Ryan Grubb has the passing game dialed up after a month of practice.
Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers should have a day, too, even if the Huskies will be able to load up the box with the Longhorns’ top two running backs out.
One thing I’m curious about: Even this game is in Longhorn country, will their fans be fired up for their 5th Alamo Bowl appearance in 10 years?
Prediction: Huskies take it to the Horns
Sun Bowl: No. 18 UCLA vs. Pittsburgh
When: 11 a.m, Dec. 30, CBS
The Bruins are among the most intact teams heading into bowl season, pending the decisions of Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zach Charbonnet. Both are expected to play, while Pitt will be without its starting quarterback — transfer portal opt-out Kedon Slovis, whom UCLA knows quite well — and Nagurski Award candidate Calijah Kancey is hurt.
With UCLA nearly full strength and the Panthers reeling with losses, this one doesn’t feel particularly close, even if the Bruins are only favored by 6 points. If UCLA gets buy-in for its top offensive weapons, the Bruins should run away with this one pretty easily, even if their defense hasn’t been consistent.
Prediction: DTR and Charbonnet go out with a bang
Cotton Bowl: No. 10 USC vs. No. 16 Tulane
When: 10 a.m., Jan. 2, ESPN
Will the Trojans be at their best after suffering a crushing defeated in the Pac-12 title game? Will Caleb Williams be healthy and mobile after a championship game hamstring injury? Will USC have too many portal entrants to compete?
This feels like a big let-down game for the Trojans, who are just 1.5-point favorites. It feels like Vegas is banking on a USC collapse after their CFP hopes were dashed. The Cotton Bowl is no small consolation prize. But it’s not the CFP. Not close.
I don’t know if this one will be, either. Tulane has a terrific running game, USC is down a bunch of players and Williams is potentially still hobbling. Not pretty.
Prediction: Trojans handed a second straight loss
Rose Bowl: No. 8 Utah vs. No. 11 Penn State
When: 2 p.m., Jan. 2, ESPN
Of all the bowl opt-outs, I’m most disappointed by Utah’s Clark Phillips III and Dalton Kincaid. They are the best in the league at their respective positions, and with so much on the line for the Utes, that has to be disappointing for Kyle Whittingham. Penn State will be without some major talent as well, including wide receiver Parker Washington and cornerback Joey Porter Jr.
This could have been a game to remember, and it still can be for Utah fans. The Utes are favored by 3 to win their first Rose Bowl, and that would be a major accomplishment for the program. They’ll probably be pretty pumped in Pasadena.
Prediction: Utah comes up roses