Pac-12 Hoops Power Rankings: Can Arizona State keep this up?
On a blockbuster Saturday in college basketball, the Pac-12 stole the show. UCLA beat Kentucky in a ranked-on-ranked matchup, then Arizona knocked off Tennessee later that evening. The success at the top underscored a successful week for the Pac-12. Arizona State is rolling, three other Pac-12 squads are 9-3, Oregon is getting healthier, and the wonderfully inconsistent Colorado Buffaloes have won three in a row.
Time to update the Pac-12 basketball power ranking. Let’s dive in.
12. California Golden Bears
Last: 12th
Record: 0-12, 0-2 Pac-12
KenPom projects two wins the rest of the way: by three points over UT Arlington on Wednesday and by one point at home over Oregon State on Jan. 22. Read the Oregon State projection like more of a toss-up than a projected win. I don’t think Cal will be 0-for on the season, but I also don’t think Cal will win more than a handful of games. The offense stinks — Cal has failed to crack 60 points in seven of its 12 games — and is more reliant on Devin Askew (16.9 points, league-leading 33.6% usage rate) than any other Pac-12 offense is on any other player.
11. Washington State Cougars
Last: 11th
Record: 4-6, 0-2 Pac-12
There’s no shame in losing to UNLV or Baylor, but Wazzu is 0-2 to start Pac-12 play and hasn’t yet beaten a team ranked higher than 201st in KenPom. The offense is shooting it fine, but the games are slowed down and the Cougars are both turning it over at a high rate and not taking the basketball away at a commensurate clip. Losing the possession battle in an intentionally-low-possession game is a recipe for just plain losing.
10. Stanford Cardinal
Last: 10th
Record: 4-7, 0-2 Pac-12
Stanford has faced seven teams currently ranked inside KenPom’s top 60. Stanford also happens to have seven losses. At this point, we know Stanford is not a KenPom top-60 team and that’s about it.
9. Oregon State Beavers
Last: 7th
Record: 6-6, 1-1 Pac-12
The Beavs beat Washington by one point to open Pac-12 play, then lost to USC by a point, then got outscored by 22 points in the second half of a game against Texas A&M in which they were up by four at the halftime break. Oregon State is a young team and sure plays like it.
8. Colorado Buffaloes
Last: 8th
Record: 7-5, 0-2 Pac-12
Colorado has won three in a row and continues to have one of the best wins that any Pac-12 team can boast — a victory over Tennessee that wasn’t in CU’s own building. But Colorado has also lost both of its first Pac-12 contests, first a 60-59 defeat to Arizona State and then a 73-63 loss to Washington.
7. Oregon Ducks
Last: 9th
Record: 7-5, 1-1 Pac-12
Will Richardson is rolling, and Oregon has won three in a row, including an impressive 13-pointer over Nevada last Saturday. The Ducks had a three-game losing streak to some of the best teams in basketball — Houston, UConn, and Michigan State — and Dana Altman was trying desperately to bubble-wrap whoever was sitting on his bench to preserve their health. The Ducks are coming out of the thick of it a bit, and have only lost once in their last six outings. That was a nine-point defeat on the road to UCLA. I was critical of Richardson early in the season, but it seems like he’s adjusting to the workload. The senior guard leads the league in minutes played and he’s averaging 8.2 assists over his last six games — twice dishing at least 11 helpers — and aside from a 4-of-11 showing against Portland on Saturday has shot the ball exceptionally well.
6. Washington Huskies
Last week: 4th
Record: 9-3, 1-1 Pac-12
The Huskies are off to a strong start but coach Mike Hopkins is looking for a bit more consistency. The conference win is by 10 points over Colorado. Good! UW followed that game up with a 17-point loss to Gonzaga during which it got hammered in the middle 20 minutes. And UW followed that loss up with the uncomfiest of six-point wins over Cal Poly, a game in which Hopkins tried to jolt his team awake by going away from the patented zone.
5. USC Trojans
Last: 5th
Record: 9-3, 2-0 Pac-12
The Trojans have won five in a row, punctuated by a 74-71 win over Auburn on Sunday. Guard Boogie Ellis was remarkable in the win, powering USC to victory with 28 points on 9-of-15 shooting from the floor and 8-of-10 from the foul line. The positive for coach Andy Enfield is that it hasn’t just been one guy; during the winning streak, four different players have led the Trojans in scoring and Tre White is the only one to do so in back-to-back games.
4. Utah Utes
Last: 6th
Record: 9-3, 2-0 Pac-12
The Utes won five games in a row before a nine-point loss to BYU on Saturday. That stretch included a dominating performance in an 81-66 win over Arizona to open Pac-12 play. The Utes are up to 46th in KenPom, buoyed by an exceptional shot defense. Teams have posted an effective field goal percentage of 39.8 so far this season, a clip only bested by Houston and Tennessee. Coach Craig Smith has the Runnin’ Utes locking it down.
3. Arizona State Sun Devils
Last: 3rd
Record: 11-1, 2-0 Pac-12
ASU has wins over Michigan in Brooklyn, Creighton in Vegas, and Colorado in Boulder. The Sun Devils have one of the best defenses inside the 3-point line of any team in the country — 39% shot defense on 2s (No. 2 nationally) and 14.5% block rate (No. 19) — and are getting at least 11 a game from four different players. Nothing about this start has me worried. This looks like a legitimate collection of dudes who will be a problem for just about everyone. Arizona State, winners of nine straight, will have the chance to make an early statement on New Year’s Eve when it hosts Arizona.
2. UCLA Bruins
Last: 2nd
Record: 10-2, 2-0 Pac-12
Breaking news: Jaime Jaquez Jr. is good. In a 63-53 win over Kentucky on Saturday, the Bruin forward put up a 19-point, 12-rebound double-double. So far this season, Jaquez is averaging 17.3 points, six boards, and two steals a game while shooting 55.3% from the floor. In one of the biggest games of the Bruins’ season so far, Jaquez showed a national audience he’s a force to be reckoned with. Which is to say nothing of the 14-point, seven-board, four-steal outing he had in a 27-point beatdown of Maryland. The Bruins have steadied nicely after those two early losses.
1. Arizona Wildcats
Last: 1st
Record: 10-1, 1-1 Pac-12
The Wildcats avenged last year’s loss in Knoxville — the first of the Tommy Lloyd era — with a 75-70 win at home over then-No. 6 Tennessee Saturday night. Arizona scored 75 points on what was basketball’s best defense. And it did so while shooting 21% on its 3s. Arizona took it to Tennessee inside, doing the lion’s share of its damage in the paint and at the free throw line. The crowd at McKale Center played a part, but the Wildcats showed something important: the ability to win a fistfight.