When ESPN’s updated FPI numbers come out this summer, we’ll be able to do quite a bit with the data. One of the more enjoyable exercises (personally speaking) is using that info to plot projected point spreads and win probabilities for matchups, and then build expected win totals off of those.

They’re preseason numbers, sure, and numbers can’t capture everything, but it can be an informative undertaking. We can get more of an objective view of teams, something that’s less based on preseason narratives.

That kind of analysis still has its place, though. Teams who make the postseason invitational have to have some kind of narrative working in their favor. How you’re framed is half the battle. So, while we patiently wait for those FPI numbers, let’s take a look at a more subjective set. The good folks at 247Sports projected early preseason win totals across the Pac-12 for the 2022 season, and it offered a pretty interesting look at how each Pac-12 squad is being viewed. Let’s dive in.

Arizona Wildcats

Projected total: 4 wins

Our take: Even

The Wildcats lost 11 of their 12 games last season. Five of those were by eight points or less. The general assumption for college football teams is that you’ll lose, learn from what caused the loss, and then turn those losing situations into wins later. If Arizona plays a handful of its games close again, flip one or two of those the other way. Considering the talent coach Jedd Fisch has brought to Tucson this offseason, maybe give Arizona another game or two. Jayden de Laura at quarterback is a big source of optimism this offseason, but the potential offensive growth isn’t just tied to his arrival. Arizona should have some legit playmakers at the skill positions. Arizona’s first four games of the season will pretty clearly decide which way this is going to go. If two or three wins aren’t to be had against a schedule of San Diego State, Mississippi State, North Dakota State, and California, hitting this over is going to be tough. There are no gimmes on this schedule.

Arizona State Sun Devils

Projected total: 6

Our take: Under

New coordinators, a new quarterback, and an opening five-game stretch that includes games against Oklahoma State on the road, Utah, and USC on the road. Assuming there are no slip-ups in the other two games, Arizona State could start 2-3. At that point, with a lingering cloud over coach Herm Edwards, things get thorny. This is going to be a good defense, but questions about the passing game cap the ceiling. Jayden Daniels’ departure, though brushed off by some in the locker room at the time, is a significant potential inflection point in the Edwards tenure. If ASU goes searching for a transfer portal quarterback this summer (it should), then any predictions for this group will need to be reevaluated after that unnamed new player shows up.  If what the Sun Devils have is what they’ll use, six wins might be the ceiling.

California Golden Bears

Projected total: 7

Our take: Under

The last five weeks of the regular-season feature games against Oregon, USC, Oregon State, Stanford, and UCLA. That’ll be the stretch where coach Justin Wilcox will get his chance to prove detractors wrong. There’s a chance the Bears are either eligible already or one win away from bowl eligibility by the time we reach the Oregon game on Oct. 29. They’ll need to be. Last season, Cal closed the year ranked 77th in offensive SP+ and 60th in yards per play. Those were high-water marks for the Wilcox tenure. And still the Bears only averaged 24 points a game (96th nationally). “Anemic” can’t be the defining characteristic on that side of the ball again for Cal to flip things back in the right direction, and to that end there’s optimism Purdue transfer Jack Plummer can be the answer at quarterback. He’s a capable passer, having cut his teeth in the high-flying Jeff Brohm offense at Purdue. How you feel about Cal is a pretty good litmus test for how you feel about Washington State and Oregon State. If Cal is your “top of the middle” team in the Pac-12 North, getting to seven is perfectly doable. If you think the latter two teams are going to show improvement year-over-year, Cal might be looking at a five-win season.

Colorado Buffaloes

Projected total: 2

Our take: Even

Despite fielding one of the worst offenses in football last season, Colorado still managed four wins. They beat Northern Colorado, Arizona, Oregon State in a double-overtime thriller, and then Washington. The UW game felt like it could go either way given the play of the Huskies last season. Kalen DeBoer should field a much more competent squad in 2022. The same can be said for Arizona. So, Colorado won three games it should have won and snatched a game it shouldn’t. Where are the games on the 2022 schedule it “should” win? Based on preseason SP+ numbers from ESPN’s Bill Connelly, the only game CU would be favored in if lines were set right now would be the Northern Colorado game in the opener. It would be about a 3.5-point dog on the road against Arizona. Questions linger about the offense’s ability to move the ball after offseason departures from key skill players. Karl Dorrell is a well-respected coach who should be viewed as a guy who can get his team to steal a game or two, but finding more than three or four wins, given what we know about the team now, requires a ton of spring hope.

Oregon Ducks

Projected total: 9

Our take: Over

We’ve got Oregon winning 10 regular-season games in Dan Lanning’s first year, dropping the opener to Georgia (which should be a closer game than most are expecting) and a late-season showdown with Utah. There’s so much defensive goodness both on the roster and in the coaching staff. Lanning and defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi getting to work with players like Noah Sewell, Brandon Dorlus, Jeff Bassa, and Christian Gonzalez? That’s a match made in heaven. Yes, the Ducks have questions at quarterback, but not all quarterback competitions are created equal. There can be a room with a bunch of guys who fail to shine or a group with a few guys who can all lead winning teams. Our bet is that the Ducks have the latter. They’ll have one of if not the best offensive line in the league and a promising collection of skill talent. That’s enough for a schedule that gives them BYU and UCLA at home and avoids USC.

Oregon State Beavers

Projected total: 7

Our take: Even

That 6.5-7 range is about where we’d put the Beavers. Quarterback Chance Nolan and running back BJ Baylor led an offensive attack a season ago that ranked 16th in the final SP+ rankings of the year. The Beavers posted a scoring differential that would normally attach to an eight-win season, fielded one of the most efficient offenses in the Pac-12, played opportunistic defense, and took special teams seriously. On the list of 40-something head coaches in college football who deserve more appreciation than what they get, Oregon State’s Jonathan Smith is near the top. The Beavers will be a tough out every week. They will be an improved team in an improved league. 

Stanford Cardinal

Projected total: 4

Our take: Over

This line required a double- and triple-take. David Shaw went 82-26 in his first eight years with the program. A 4-8 season in 2019 and a 3-9 season in 2021 evidently has the Shaw tour bus looking pretty light, but with a promising quarterback in Tanner McKee and Shaw still roaming the sidelines, you’d expect the Cardinal to be better, right? Stanford returns the third-most production in the country and the most in the Pac-12, including practically everyone of consequence on the offensive side of the ball. It should be an improved football team in every facet. The schedule, however, is unforgiving. The road slate—Oregon, Notre Dame, UCLA, Utah—is daunting. The Cardinal also has its bye week just two games into the season and then plays 10 straight weeks.

UCLA Bruins

Projected total: 8

Our take: Over

This is probably as bullish a take on Chip Kelly’s UCLA squad as you’ll find. A backfield of Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zach Charbonnet is just too good to ignore. UCLA will have a top-three quarterback in the Pac-12 and a top-two running back. The additions to the defense this offseason have hit all the right notes. In terms of players, UCLA has added Hawaii transfer linebacker Darius Muasau, North Texas transfer edge rushers Gabriel and Grayson Murphy, Wyoming transfer defensive back Azizi Hearn, and Oregon transfer defensive back Jaylin Davies. All of them could be valuable contributors in 2022. Also, it’ll be an almost entirely new defensive staff coaching them up, led by new defensive coordinator Bill McGovern. UCLA should start the year 5-0, and it should close the regular season with at least four wins in its last five games. Games on Oct. 8 and Oct. 22 could be two of the most entertaining on the entire 2022 Pac-12 schedule.

USC Trojans

Projected total: 9

Our take: Even

Lincoln Riley has never lost more than two games in a season as a head coach. Caleb Williams, the new USC quarterback, has enough talent to challenge for a Heisman Trophy (and certainly will have the requisite narrative to push for one). USC’s collection of offensive skill talent—headlined by running back Travis Dye and wideouts Mario Williams, Tahj Washington, and Gary Bryant Jr.—is as good as any in the conference. USC will be a well-coached team. Nine wins in Year 1 for Riley would be an excellent starting point. Getting there will require significantly better play at the line of scrimmage.

Utah Utes

Projected total: 9

Our take: Over

One thing that stood out from 247Sports’ analysis of the Pac-12: “… the Pac-12 will likely miss out on the final four altogether, again. That will change with USC’s emergence under Riley and Lanning at Oregon, however. That’s two elite coaches on the West Coast.” Legitimate question: is Utah being categorized as a non-West team here or is coach Kyle Whittingham being disregarded as an elite coach? It’s probably the former, but given the way Utah has seemingly been glossed over all offseason, the latter wouldn’t come as a surprise. Based on preseason SP+ numbers, the only game Utah wouldn’t be favored in would be the opener against Florida on the road. And it would be a 1.5-point underdog because of a 2.5-point swing for home-field advantage. The expected win total is 9.5. Take the Utes, with an established quarterback and an elite head coach, over Florida in its first game under a new regime. Once Cam Rising took over at quarterback last season for the Utes, they went 9-2. Rising is back, and should be better. Running back Tavion Thomas, after scoring a ridiculous 21 rushing touchdowns, is back. The defense has playmakers at every level. There’s no reason to fade the Utes.

Washington Huskies

Projected total: 6

Our take: Even

The Huskies are perhaps the toughest team to figure in the Pac-12. Outside of probably Eugene and Pullman, you’d be hard-pressed to find someone who doesn’t like Kalen DeBoer as a coach. Washington has a number of options at quarterback, a history of strong secondary play, and a few nice options at the skill positions. Last season, the Huskies got run over at the line of scrimmage. That can’t happen again. Fixing that is priority No. 1. Washington ranked 120th in rushing offense (yards per carry) and 105th in rushing defense. What growth can occur there? Bettors could take Washington winning five games and feel just as confident as someone else who took the Huskies to win seven. So we’re sitting at six.

Washington State Cougars

Projected total: 7

Our take: Even

Perhaps this team gets to eight wins. Jump aboard the Cameron Ward train because it’ll leave the station pretty quick when the season gets rolling. Jake Dickert, going into his first year as the full-time head coach, and new offensive coordinator Eric Morris are expected to construct their “Coug Raid” offense fully around Ward’s remarkable talent, and it should be one of the higher-scoring bunches out West. The former Incarnate Word quarterback is a big guy with a big arm who will probably start generating NFL Draft buzz once the masses see him against Power Five competition. Ward threw for 4,648 yards and 47 touchdowns last fall, completing 65% of his throws and tossing only 10 interceptions in 13 games and 590 pass attempts. He’s a baller. He’ll have Washington State in every game.