Gold: The Pac-12's QB Problem
On Tuesday, I wrote about the significance of Elijah Brown’s oral commitment to Stanford, which gave the Cardinal the top available quarterback recruit in the Class of 2024, particularly in the context of what is an unimpressive crop of Pac-12 QB commits.
Brown is one of just three conference 4-star commits in next year’s quarterback class, which is not only light on footprint talent, but also perilously close to seeing some of its top prospects — including 4-star Alabama commit Julian Sayin of Carlsbad, Calif. — exit that footprint.
That, combined with pedestrian high school classes in 2021 and 2022, has the Pac-12 in a perplexing position.
At the very same time that the league has some of the top passing prowess in the country, its future at the position looks murky.
But look on the bright side: All that passing prowess? USC’s Caleb Williams, Oregon’s Bo Nix, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Utah’s Cam Rising — and even Arizona’s Jayden de Laura, Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, Washington State’s Cam Ward and Cal’s Sam Jackson IV — all of them are transfers. So what looks murky today might mean little a year from now.
But for now, let’s take a look at how things are stacking up for the Pac-12 at its most precious position…
Arizona
2023 projected starter: Jayden de Laura
2024 projected starter: Jayden de Laura
2024 commit: None
Latest major signee: 2023 4-star Brayden Dorman
Outlook: Don’t look now, but Arizona’s got a nice little succession plan going. Dorman is considered a very good prospect, but don’t write off Class of 2022 3-star Noah Fifita, who, despite his size, played plenty big last season in relief of de Laura. Because of a glut of quarterback talent in the conference and the country in 2023, I expect de Laura to return for the 2024 campaign as a contender for an all-conference nod, but the Wildcats seem to be in a good spot once he leaves.
Arizona State
2023 starter: Trenton Bourguet
2024 projected starter: Jaden Rashada
2024 commit: None
Latest major signee: 2023 4-star Jaden Rashada
Outlook: After the emotional roller coaster that was the Rashada commitment, it’s hard to feel especially settled about the Sun Devils QB future. This year’s 3-way battle between Bourguet, Rashada and Notre Dame transfer Drew Pyne should at the very least put some hair on Rashada’s chest. He should be ready to start by next year, if not this year. But don’t think that Kenny Dillingham is going to rest on his laurels. He wants a full quarterback room going forward.
Cal
2023 starter: Sam Jackson IV
2024 projected starter: Sam Jackson IV
2024 commit: 3-star EJ Caminong
Latest major signee: 2021 4-star Kai Millner (transferred to Northern Arizona
Outlook: Millner’s transfer, in addition to the transfer of Jack Plummer, put the Bears in a bad position. Millner was a nice signing for Justin Wilcox, and to see him leave for lowly Northern Arizona, of all places, was a bit strange. Somewhat coincidentally, he’s been replaced by TCU transfer Jackson, who ranked one spot above him in 247Sports’ 2021 class rankings.
Colorado
2023 starter: Shedeur Sanders
2024 projected starter: Shedeur Sanders
2024 commit: None
Latest major signee: 2023 3-star Ryan Staub
Outlook: Well, compared to last year, the Buffaloes are in a great spot. And maybe in the long run, they will be. But Colorado has very little depth and few prospects beyond Sanders, who joined father Deion in Boulder. If Sanders players like he did for Jackson State against Pac-12 competition, he might not be in Boulder very long. But if that happens, Colorado will be a prime transfer destination.
Oregon
2023 starter: Bo Nix
2024 projected starter: Transfer portal
2024 commit: 4-star Michael Van Buren
Latest major signee: 2023 4-star Austin Novosad
Outlook: After 2021 4-star Ty Thompson struggled in the Ducks’ spring game, Oregon fans should be worried about the Ducks’ QB situation. Bo Nix will be in the NFL this time next year, and Thompson seemed overwhelmed in his scarce game action last year, completing 55 percent of his 20 passes while throwing 2 picks and no scores. There’s a good shot the Ducks dip back into the transfer portal next year.
Oregon State
2023 starter: D.J. Uiagalelei
2024 projected starter: D.J. Uiagalelei
2024 commit: None
Latest major signee: 2023 4-star Aiden Chiles
Outlook: If Uiagalelei can regain some of his swagger, the Beavers are in a good spot. Especially because of this loaded class — Uiagalelei should be good, but not top-3 rounds good, which means he could be back for 2024. If that’s the case, it could be a fun battle with Chiles, who looked terrific in the Beavers’ spring game. Chiles could even push the matter this season. But if he does sit behind either the Clemson transfer or last year’s starter Ben Gulbranson, Jonathan Smith better keep him happy.
Stanford
2023 starter: Ari Patu
2024 projected starter: Ari Patu
2024 commit: 4-star Elijah Brown
Latest major signee: 2023 3-star Myles Jackson
Outlook: Patu is an intriguing prospect for the Cardinal, but not as good as Brown. But unless the wheels come off for the Cardinal in Troy Taylor’s first season at the helm, Patu will likely have chance to run it back in 2024, as well. Unless Brown is drastically ahead of the curve, that is.
UCLA
2023 starter: Dante Moore
2024 projected starter: Dante Moore
2024 commit: None
Latest major signee: 2023 5-star Dante Moore
Outlook: Notice a theme? Yes, the Bruins still have Ethan Garbers and Collin Schlee on the roster, but both the future and the present appear to belong to Moore. Brown certainly felt that way — he had UCLA in his top two but ultimately went with Stanford. With the hype around Moore, it would be a surprise to see anyone else under center for UCLA for years to come.
USC
2023 starter: Caleb Williams
2024 projected starter: Malachi Nelson
2024 commit: None
Latest major signee: 2023 5-star Malachi Nelson
Outlook: OK, this is pretty darn rosy. Like UCLA, the Trojans have a 5-star 2023 prospect. Unlike the Bruins, USC’s might just get some seasoning on the bench this year. After Williams attempts to go back-to-back on the Heisman Trophy this year, Nelson could take reins, or Lincoln Riley might go hunting in the transfer portal once more. You can bet that, either way, USC is in prime position in 2024.
Utah
2023 starter: Cam Rising
2024 projected starter: Brandon Rose
2024 commit: 4-star Isaac Wilson
Latest major signee: 2022 3-star Nate Jackson
Outlook: If Rising is still hurt to start this year, we’ll have a much better idea about Utah’s forecast. Getting a close-up look at Rose, even if it risks a potential 3rd-straight Pac-12 title, would at the very least offer some clarity. And Kyle Whittingham can use that. The long-time Utes coach prefers a home-grown option, and should Rose show his thorns, Whittingham will be back in the portal looking for the next Rising.
Washington
2023 starter: Michael Penix Jr.
2024 projected starter: Transfer portal
2024 commit: 3-star Dermaricus Davis
Latest major signee: 2023 4-star Austin Mack
Outlook: All due respect to former starter Dylan Morris, but he’s not getting the keys to the car back unless something terrible happens. The ball belongs Michael Penix Jr. for now, but he could be a 1st rounder next year, and it’s a stretch to say Mack will be ready by 2024. A more likely scenario is Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb finding their next record-breaker through the portal.
Washington State
2023 starter: Cam Ward
2024 projected starter: Transfer portal
2024 commit: 3-star Evans Chuba
Latest major signee: 2023 3-star Jaxon Potter
Outlook: This season feels like an audition for both Ward and Cougars head coach Jake Dickert. Ward picked Wazzu in large part because of the arrival of his former head coach at Incarnate Word, Eric Morris, who served as the team’s offensive coordinator last year before leaving in the offseason for North Texas. Ward will look to boost his stats to draw some attention from NFL scouts, and a good season would also make Pullman a more attractive landing spot for a potential transfer.