Projecting the Pac-12 2023 best-case scenarios is at once a futile and thrilling exercise, for while we know not the impact of several new coaches, new players and old injuries, all boundaries are tossed out the window anyways.

Can Shedeur Sanders become an All-American? Maybe!

Can Jedd Fisch lead Arizona back to legitimacy? There’s a chance!

Can Kenny Dillingham turn things around quickly? Who knows?

That’s the fun of it.

Here’s a look at the best-case scenario for every Pac-12 team…

Arizona: 8-4

There appear to be 4 automatic losses on the Arizona schedule, but obviously a more perilous road lies ahead.

Trips to Mississippi State in Week 2 and USC in Week 7 and home games against Washington and Utah are daunting — all have more talent, more experience and superior resources. A win over any of those teams really means Jedd Fisch is in business.

And there are 3 wins that you can just about etch into stone: Northern Arizona, UTEP and Stanford.

That leaves 5 pivotal games: Washington State, Oregon State, UCLA, Colorado and Arizona State.

As it stands, I’ve got the Wildcats beating the Cougars, Bruins and Sun Devils while losing to Oregon State and Colorado — a result that would send them bowling for the first time since 2017 — but truly all of those games could go either way. Win even 4 of them, and Fisch announces to the conference that Arizona is not just a basketball school again.

Arizona State: 6-6

Bowl eligibility in his first season seems like a pipe dream for Kenny Dillingham, but the Sun Devils’ schedule plays out in a way that it is at least feasible, including 4 home games to open the season. Split those, and we’re talking.

After opening with what should be a win over Southern Utah, ASU welcomes Oklahoma State, Fresno State and USC — win one and they could be on track to head into the bye at .500, as games at Cal and at home against Colorado follow.

After the bye comes a tough second half, including road games at Washington, Utah and UCLA, as well as home games against Oregon, Washington State and Arizona.

The Sun Devils will at least have a chance against the Bruins, Cougars and Wildcats.

Should Arizona State’s passing game on both sides of the ball show improvement, going bowling is doable.

And if Kenny Dillingham pulls it off, he deserves Pac-12 coach of the year contention

Cal: 5-7

From doable to doubtable. Sorry Bear backers — I just don’t see a path to the postseason for Cal, which would put Justin Wilcox in quite the predicament. That would mean 4 consecutive seasons sidelined during the season joy.

After what should be a 2-1 non-conference slate with matchups against North Texas, Auburn and Idaho, reality sets in in a hurry with a hellish slate. In the next 8 weeks, Cal has trips to Washington, Utah and Oregon (…good luck), as well as home games against Arizona State, Oregon State, USC and Washington State. Plus a bye. A merciful bye, at that, smack between the Beavers, Utes, Trojans and Ducks — teams with a combined 41 wins.

The most charitable reading would call for 2 wins in that group — Arizona State and Washington State — plus 1 more win in the final 2 weeks against either Stanford or UCLA, but probably not both.

That would mean 5 wins. Just one true upset, and the Bears might go bowling.

Colorado: 7-5

Maybe the hardest team in the country to predict. Ever.

This simply hasn’t happened before — an almost complete turnover of the 3-deep roster. This is like bowling without the bumpers. Pure anarchy, baby. Could Colorado win 2 games? Ten? Zero? Fourteen? Who knows?

What we do know for sure is that the Buffaloes have one difficult schedule.

They open the Deion Sanders era traveling to the defending national runner-up TCU Horned Frogs. Then comes home games against Nebraska and Colorado State — certainly no gimmies, not for a team that went 1-11 last year, no matter how re-constructed.

Up next from there is a Pac-12 slate that includes just about every tough conference opponent other than Washington (the Buffs also miss Cal), with road games against Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA, Washington State and Utah and home games against USC, Stanford, Oregon State and Arizona.

As of now, I’ve got the Buffaloes pegged for 5 wins (Nebraska, Colorado State, Arizona State, Stanford and Washington State), but my conviction is about as strong as a spider web in a stiff breeze. Losses to TCU, Oregon, USC, Oregon State and Utah seem pretty certain for now, while UCLA and Arizona are toss-ups.

Could Colorado actually win 7 games in Year 1? It could happen. So could zero. So could negative wins. The sky is the limit. And the floor. Who knows?

Oregon: 12-0

We’re talking best-case scenarios here, so by definition, we’re talking extremes. And it may seem extreme to paint the rosiest of pictures, but there is no Georgia on the schedule this year, and if Bo Nix stays healthy…

Of course, that’s the question: Can the dual-threat quarterback dazzle with his arm and his legs in every single game.

If he does, yes, an undefeated season is feasible.

The Ducks will almost certainly be undefeated by the time they travel to Husky Stadium in Week 7, coming off a bye, for the 1st of what could be 4 candidates for Pac-12 Game of the Year. Washington will also be fresh off a bye and hungry to make it back-to-back wins over the Ducks, after winning at Autzen Stadium last season.

Oregon then flip-flops sure-things with bloodbaths over the season’s final six weeks.
Washington State, yay! At Utah, boo! Cal, yay. USC, boo! At Arizona State, yay! Oregon State, boo!

In my crystal ball, I have wins over USC and Oregon State and losses at Washington and Utah. Any combination could happen.

Oregon State: 11-1

I’m as high on Oregon State as anybody, and if the Beavers caught the Ducks at home this year, I might consider them candidates for an undefeated season. Alas, they have not won in Autzen since 2007.

That fact, combined with tough home games against Utah, UCLA and Washington slightly limits my cap on the Beavers. The most realistically optimistic — or optimistically realistic? — scenario in my mind is 10 wins, with wins over UCLA and either the Utes or Huskies.

Wins over both would be monumental, but I wouldn’t put it past the ascending Jonathan Smith. So much rides on the quarterback position, though. If D.J. Uiagalelei is what we think he might be, the Beavers are a CFP contender.

Stanford: 6-6

It’s hard not to like what Troy Taylor is doing at Stanford — installing an innovative new offense, hitting the recruiting trail hard — but it’s also hard to imagine a particularly fruitful first season on the Farm.

A winless conference season seems like a distinct chance. The Cardinal should score a pair of early wins against Hawai’i and Sac State in Weeks 1 and 3 — sandwiching a sure loss at Stanford — but then comes a tough slate, including obvious losses against Oregon, UCLA, Washington and Notre Dame at home.

The likeliest Pac-12 wins come early — vs. Arizona — and late — vs. Cal — with mid-season road games at Colorado and Washington State proving improbable but not unfathomable.

Lose all 4, and Stanford is staring at a 2-10 season. Win all 4, and the Cardinal are going bowling.

UCLA: 9-3

After a breezy non-conference schedule with 3 projected wins over Coastal Carolina, San Diego State and North Carolina Central, things get real in a hurry.

A road trip to Utah in Week 4 will be likely freshman starter Dante Moore’s welcome-to-the-Pac-12-moment. It would’ve been better for UCLA had its bye come before this game instead of after it. Starting in Week 6, it’s full steam ahead, with home games against Washington State, Colorado, Arizona State and Cal and road games at Oregon State, Stanford, Arizona and USC.

That screams a 4-4 finish to me, with varying degrees of difficulty. Beating USC at the Coliseum for a 2nd straight time would be a feat, and Oregon State is more-than-formidable. The Arizona schools won’t be pushovers, Colorado is a complete question mark and the Bay Area schools should be wins.

Key to UCLA’s season is avoiding Washington and Oregon. Because of that, a 9-win season — with losses at Utah, Oregon State and USC — is at least in the possibility.

USC: 12-0

Is an undefeated season in the cards for
Lincoln Riley and Caleb Willams? Much like with the Oregon Ducks, it’ll could come down to just a few games.

After a 6-0 start against the likes of San Jose State, Nevada, Stanford, Arizona State, Colorado and Arizona, the Trojans have their 1st real test in Week 8 at Notre Dame, followed by a home date with Utah, which beat the Trojans twice last year.

After an eminently winnable game against Cal, USC then gets to its roughest stretch: vs. Washington, at Oregon and vs. UCLA.

If Alex Grinch and the USC defense takes a big step forward this year, the Trojans can beat anyone in the country. Admittedly, that’s a big if. Maybe the biggest of the year.

Utah: 10-2

No single player’s fate will determine the success of his team more than Cam Rising’s. When he tore his ACL last year in the Rose Bowl, he not only robbed the Utes of a potential first time winning the Granddaddy Of Them All, he also put some limitations on the 2023 ceiling. Well, at least from the outside in. We should know by now not to count Rising out.

But the best-case scenario is a time for unbridled joy and possibility, and if not for a brutal non-conference slate that includes both Florida and Baylor, plus conference road games at Oregon State, USC and Washington, a 3rd-straight Pac-12 championship might seem like more of a reality. If some of the schedule was even a bit more favorable, I’d say 10 wins would be an expectation, instead of a ceiling.

Washington: 11-1

Washington avoids UCLA and the quandary that is Colorado in 2023, meaning the Huskies must contend with the league’s other main contenders.

That means Oregon and USC, Utah and Oregon State. As good as the Huskies passing game is, it is hard to imagine them coming out of that completely unscathed. Eleven regular-season wins is about as wild as I’ll get.

But Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb really raised some eyebrows last year. They could start the season in the top 15.

Washington State: 9-3

A late-season reprieve is the only thing keeping Washington State from a steep regression. After a potential hot start with a would-be undefeated slate against Colorado State, Wisconsin and Northern Colorado, then comes Oregon State, UCLA, Arizona and Oregon.

If the Cougars manage to split those, that sets them up for a strong finish against Arizona State, Stanford, Cal, Colorado and Washington.

Go 4-1 there, and now the Cougars are looking at a 9-3 campaign. That would certainly be a surprise.