In my first Crystal Ball Rewind, featuring Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, Colorado, Oregon and Oregon State, I was pretty darn spot on.

I was off by just 4 games among the 6 teams, nailing the Ducks’ 9-3 record as well as Cal’s 4-8 campaign.

This go-round, not so pretty. I was way, way off on Washington and slightly off on USC and UCLA.

Take a look below for Part 2 of my Pac-12 Crystal Ball Rewind.

Stanford

Crystal Ball Prediction: 4-8 (3-6)

Actual Record: 3-9 (1-8)

Nailed it: Here’s what I wrote in my preview: “Going 81-26 in 8 years gives a head coach a measure of street cred. Or, at least, a long leash. But after a brilliant run to start his Stanford career, David Shaw is 11-19 over the past 3 seasons, with one 5th-place finish in the North and a 6th-place finish last year. Shaw means so much to the Cardinal that it’s almost unfathomable that they’d let him go, but this is the big bucks of college football we’re talking about here. He has to turn things around at some point, you’d think.”

Sure, this was ostensibly Shaw’s decision, but the team’s lack of success and downward momentum made his decision to leave the Cardinal a pretty clear one.

Big whiff: I’m not going to apologize for betting on Shaw to turn it around this season. I’m a Shaw guy and I always will be, and with EJ Smith, Tanner McKee and Kyu Blu-Kelly back in the fold, I thought the Cardinal would perform much better in conference play. Alas, after picking up one of the key nonconference wins of the Pac-12 schedule with an improbable midseason victory over Notre Dame, the Cardinal won just 1 more game the rest of the way.

Notable: Falling from 4 conference wins to 2 last season to 1 this year was a precipitous drop. The Cardinal last won 1 conference game in 2006.

Quotable: “After a 3-win season, a 4-win season will certainly not feel like 33% improvement. Stanford expects big things this season, but the Cardinal just haven’t recruited well enough up front, and the team certainly hasn’t developed the kind of top-line talent that propelled them to double-digit wins on the regular.

With that tough 5-game stretch and a nonconference slate that includes Notre Dame and BYU, even if the team does regain some of its mojo offensively, it won’t matter much in the win column.”

UCLA

Crystal Ball Prediction: 10-2 (7-2)

Actual Record: 9-3 (6-3)

Nailed it: I was higher on the Bruins than many and up until the last third of the season, I was feeling pretty good about it. The Bruins scored a big win over Utah before falling by 15 to Oregon. They picked themselves up again, only to stumble against Arizona and USC down the stretch by a combined 9 points.

An improved pass rush helped UCLA but could not make for fundamental defensive deficiencies.

Big whiff: After scoring a 29-point win over the Trojans last year, I thought the Bruins would have another good time of it against USC at the Rose Bowl this year. In one of the best games of the season, though, the Trojans came out on top 48-45, as Caleb Williams just slightly outdueled Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

Notable: A Sun Bowl win would give the Bruins their first 10-win season since back-to-back 10-win campaigns in 2013-14.

Quotable: “The Bruins have more returning experience and talent than at any point in Kelly’s tenure. Last year, for the first time, we saw what it was like to combine Kelly’s creativity and acumen with an offense that had the pieces to let him feel uninhibited. The worst thing you can take away from a coach like Kelly is the sense of confidence that comes with complete command of the offense. Dorian Thompson-Robinson had to earn that trust from Kelly, and he has. The question really comes down to this: Will the defense be improved enough for UCLA to contend for a Pac-12 title? For many Bruin followers, the sense is that former DC Jerry Azzinaro was largely to blame for the defensive woes. Part of that was a byproduct of him not talking to the media for four years, so he couldn’t share his side of the story. For all of Kelly’s recruiting missteps and failures, his biggest mistake was stick with Azzinaro for so long. That issue has been rectified. The Bruins have talent on both sides of the ball. They have their most favorable schedule in years, if not ever. Everything is lining up for a big year.”

USC

Crystal Ball Prediction: 9-3 (7-2)

Actual Record: 11-1 (8-1)

Nailed it: I more than doubled USC’s 2021 win total, and still that was nowhere near close to how the Trojans performed in 2022.

Simply put, USC was among the best teams in the country, ultra-competitive until the middle of the Pac-12 title game. Not many teams had offenses like the Trojans. Few had a defense more opportunistic. If not for some bad habits and some bad timing, they’d be in the Playoff.

I expected the Trojans to improve greatly, but not that much. And I vastly underrated Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams, even with all the hype and hoopla. I expected them to struggle to get USC’s broken confidence back, but they really poured themselves into the team.

Big whiff: USC’s season was defined with back-to-back wins over ranked opponents, who just so happen to be the Trojans’ two biggest rivals. I pegged USC to lose to UCLA and Notre Dame to close out the regular season, but the Trojans eked by the Bruins at the Rose Bowl then handed it to the Fighting Irish.

I did not see Williams putting up a Heisman Trophy campaign in Year 2, that’s for sure.

Notable: If USC beats Tulane in the Cotton Bowl, Lincoln Riley will break a tie with Howard Jones and the legendary John McKay for most wins by a 1st-year coach in program history.

Quotable: “USC football players and coaches have maintained throughout the offseason that it’s championship or bust. But that is entirely unrealistic in Lincoln Riley’s first season. What’s realistic? Doubling up on last year’s 4 wins. The Trojans will have the offense to hang in every game, despite a difficult schedule. Nine regular-season wins and a 7-2 conference record is nothing to sneeze at, and USC’s stars like Caleb Williams, Jordan Addison and Travis Dye will be up for postseason awards. But for Trojans fans who are expecting the moon, falling a little short won’t do.”

Utah

Crystal Ball Prediction: 11-1 (8-1)

Actual Record: 9-3 (7-2)

Nailed it: Well, this one feels pretty on the money.

“The last time Utah defeated USC in back-to-back games was … 1915-16. Granted, they rarely played before coming conference rivals, but, still, it’s been over a century. But despite USC’s myriad talented acquisitions, the Utes will reign again this season. Why? Utah’s front seven can hold strong with USC’s talented offensive line, and the Utes have more than enough firepower to test the Trojans’ defense. Ultimately, just a few plays will decide the Pac-12’s biggest game of the year.”

The 43-42 midseason matchup indeed lived up to billing as the biggest game of the year, and the Utes ultimately came out on top because of a clutch last-minute 2-point conversion.

Big whiff: I was a bit too bullish on the Utes, starting from Week 1. I think that if you flipped Florida and Southern Utah and let Utah get the jitters out, the Utes would’ve beaten the Gators in Week 2. I actually think any other week of the season and Florida goes down. Utah was clearly fighting the awkward position of being the preseason Pac-12 No. 1. The Utes obviously operate better from the underdog role.

Utah ended up winning the Pac-12, so it’s not like I was totally off in my analysis of their talent and makeup. I do wonder what would’ve happened had Brant Kuithe stayed healthy all year and the Utes had him against UCLA and Oregon, their other 2 losses.

Notable: The Utes have won double-figure games in back-to-back seasons for the first time since their 3-year run from 2008-10.

Quotable: “Finally, after a half-dozen years, the Pac-12 gets its Playoff team. The Utes are well-rounded and well-coached, balanced and efficient. They’ve got their typical impressive defensive line and running game, only Cameron Rising adds a dimension they haven’t seen in years. If Rising surpasses the standard he set last year, they’ve got a chance to be both the best offense and defense in the Pac-12. And if they can avoid being tripped up by lesser teams — a seemingly annual practice for Utah — then all systems are go for a CFP berth and a shot at a national title.”

Washington

Crystal Ball Prediction: 6-6 (4-5)

Actual Record: 10-2 (7-2)

Nailed it: Just about nothing. Entering the season, I was sure that Washington would struggle coming off a 4-8 season, with a lightly heralded coach and a pedestrian portal transfer in Michael Penix, Jr. Boy was I wrong.

Penix became a Heisman candidate — and enters next year with a legitimate shot at the hardware — and Kalen DeBoer helped architect one of the most righteous turnarounds in the country. Unlike USC, which benefitted from the best transfer portal haul in the country, the Huskies made use of a few key additions but were mostly built from within.

And that offense truly became something special with DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb teaming up to lead one of the most exciting, fast-paced, innovative units in the entire country.

If not for a 2-game midseason losing streak to UCLA and Arizona State by a combined 15 points, the Huskies would’ve been undefeated. Washington made up for it, though, with the best 1-2 punch of the season, defeating Oregon State and Oregon in back-to-back weeks.

Big whiff: Just about everything. I just did not buy in to DeBoer doing his thing so quickly. I thought a 2-win improvement would’ve been impressive. To win 6 more games and to turn Penix into one of the top quarterbacks in the Pac-12 was beyond even my wildest expectations. I can forgive myself for picking the Huskies to lose to the Ducks and even to the Beavers. Not so much my Cal-over-UDub prediction.

Notable: Washington has had 10-win seasons dating back to 1923, but no 1st-year Husky coach had ever won 10 games in a season.

Quotable: “The Huskies are considered a major bounce-back team by many in the media. ESPN’s Football Power Index pegs the Huskies at 7.5 wins, almost 2 full wins more than I have for Washington. My biases against 3 things are keeping me from projecting more than a 2-win upgrade: a new head coach, the quarterback situation, and what I consider to be a high probability for injury issues. I’ll say this: If Ryan Grubb’s pace and tempo are as advertised, the Crystal Ball will show some cracks.”

Washington State

Crystal Ball Prediction: 6-6 (4-5)

Actual Record: 7-5 (4-5)

Nailed it: Well, I wasn’t as off on the Cougars as the rest of this group, so I’ve got that going for me? Washington State played to about chalk in 2022, beating every team it was better than and losing to 5 Pac-12 teams that finished ahead of the Cougars in the standings. They came close a couple times — losing by 3 points to Oregon and by 4 points to Utah — but were blown out by USC, Oregon State and in-state rival Washington.

Jake Dickert’s impressive job in his first full season as head coach went overlooked in a conference that saw major turnarounds by the Trojans and Huskies and a big first year for Dan Lanning’s Oregon Ducks.

Dickert certainly has a good foundation from which to build, but he has some major holes to fill in the offseason.

Big whiff: Here’s what I had to say about Wazzu’s Week 2 matchup with Wisconsin:

“Talk about the pendulum swinging to the other side. Wisconsin presents one of the most difficult nonconference games in the Pac-12. Ward will have his hands full with a Badgers defense that lives up to its name. Wisconsin had 39 sacks and 16 interceptions last season, 2nd in the Big Ten in both categories. They’ll hound Ward throughout.”

I felt pretty confident about that one at the time. The Badgers have been good for years, and I certainly didn’t see a regression coming from them, particularly not a 3-game slide to 6-6. But even in a bad Badgers season, I would’ve expected more of a fight from them.

Wisconsin only sacked Ward twice and the Cougars held the Badgers to zero points in the second half in the 17-14 win.

Notable: Slowly but surely, the Cougars are inching closer to a .500 lifetime record. They’ve gained 25 games in the win/loss column since Mike Leach’s 4th year in 2015, currently standing at 560-573-45.

Quotable: “The Cougars have some of the lightest returning talent in the Pac-12 and they’re breaking in a new coaching staff. Just making it to a bowl game would be an achievement for Dickert’s squad. But with one of the most electric quarterbacks in the conference in Cameron Ward, the Cougars will do it.”