First impressions can be deceiving, but by the second time around, you usually have a good idea if your eyes were fooling you.

About a month after the kick off of our Crystal Ball series, I’m recalibrating my expectations for the Pac-12. Who is up? Who is down?

Here’s a look at how I think things will play out going forward…

Arizona Wildcats

Crystal Ball: 6-6

Now: 5-7

Arizona has looked improved so far this year, and if it wasn’t for Colorado’s terrific start, I’d still feel confident about predicting the Wildcats to make their first postseason appearance since 2017. I do wonder if the Buffaloes will avoid the infirmary long enough to remain competitive throughout the year, and Arizona gets them in Week 12.

The Cats have another surprisingly tough matchup in Week 7 at Washington State that I’m waffling on. I had Arizona and Jayden de Laura pulling off the upset in Pullman, but the Cougars looked mighty good in a Week 2 win over Wisconsin. That pass rush is for real.

Arizona State Sun Devils

Crystal Ball: 3-9

Now: 1-11

ASU has been the most underwhelming team in the conference so far. Kenny Dillingham’s offensive wizardry has not been readily evident in 2 games, as the Sun Devils have scored 3 second half points so far this year. Freshman QB Jaden Rashada has looked like, well, a freshman.

The scant hope I had for ASU this year has gone out the window. I projected wins at Cal and UCLA — that looks silly now.

Cal Bears

Crystal Ball: 3-9

Now: 4-8

The Bears shouldn’t be too happy — their 1-win adjustment is more because of Arizona State’s lax start than their good one. Week 1 was terrific as the offense thrived in Jake Spavital’s new scheme, but the Bears momentum collapsed last week against a mediocre Auburn squad. If Cal solves its QB quandary, maybe they come close to sniffing bowl eligibility.

Colorado Buffaloes

Crystal Ball: 5-7

Now: 7-5

I’m upping my win projection from 5 to 7 and even that feels low — and high at the same time. It’s clear we were all wrong on the Buffaloes, whose talent truly does appear special. It’s way beyond shuts Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter. Dylan Edwards and Xavier Weaver have added a new dimension to the passing game, and both sides of the line have talent. The one issue with Colorado is its depth. Can the Buffs survive some lean weeks, especially later in the year?

If the Buffaloes somehow beat either or both Oregon and USC, the hype will explode the sun. Predicted losses to UCLA and Arizona appear firmly in the win column.

Oregon Ducks

Crystal Ball: 10-2

Now: 10-2

I’ve been very high on the Ducks all along, and for good reason. You don’t put up 81 points in a football game without being pretty darn good. Unfortunately, I don’t see a path to greatness, and my projections haven’t changed at all.

I’ve got Oregon saddled with losses at Washington and Utah, teams both ranked in the top 12.

Oregon State Beavers

Crystal Ball: 9-3

Now: 10-2

I’m officially bullish on the Beavers. D.J. Uiagalelei has added a downfield element to the OSU offense that’s been lacking for years, and he and Damien Martinez are going to be dangerous together.

I’ve only got them up one win, but it’s a big one. Utah has been a bit of s disappointment so far, and even accounting for the Utes’ injury woes, OSU is in a better place right now.

Stanford Cardinal

Crystal Ball: 2-10

Now: 2-10

Sorry Stanford fans, I’ve still got the Troy Taylor era getting off to a rough start. Saturday will prove to be the team’s last win of the year, though it will be meaningful coming against Taylor’s former team.

UCLA Bruins

Crystal Ball: 7-5

Now: 8-4

UCLA’s ferocious defense is off to a tremendous start in one that could start rewriting the book on the Bruins. If Chip Kelly, embraces the inevitable and rolls with Dante Moore the rest of the year, the Bruins could be looking at a truly strong season.

With that said, I’ve got UCLA winning one additional game, one I feel silly about projecting the other way.

In a battle of true freshman, Moore will have a field day against Rashada.

USC Trojans

Crystal Ball: 10-2

Now: 11-1

USC’s offense has been so singularly overwhelming, and the defense less aggressive and more reliable, that I truly believe the sky is the limit for the Trojans. They could go undefeated at this point, and I wouldn’t be surprised.

I still have them losing one game, but not two like originally predicted. I thought Notre Dame would be a tough one in South Bend, and I still do. But I like Caleb Williams better than Sam Hartman.

Utah Utes

Crystal Ball: 9-3

Now: 9-3

I’ve got Utah standing pat at 9 wins, but with a different path. I called the Utes to lose to Baylor, but they pulled out the last-minute win after switching to Nate Johnson at QB.

But I am flipping their Week 5 road game at Oregon State. If Cam Rising is back, the Utes stand a chance in Corvallis.

Washington Huskies

Crystal Ball: 11-1

Now: 11-1

I picked the Huskies to go 11-1 and finish as one of the two competitors for the Pac-12 title, and nothing I’ve seen in the first two weeks is going to move me from that ledge. Michael Penix Jr. has been breathtaking. His receivers, too. The defense, solid. A down running game missing Cameron Davis is the lone blemish.

But I had Washington’s lone loss coming at USC, and I still do.

Washington State Cougars

Crystal Ball: 5-7

Now: 6-6

A month ago, I robbed the Cougars of what would’ve been their 10th bowl appearance in 11 years. Having seen what their defense can do — and did, in fact, in a 2nd straight win over Wisconsin — I’m putting them in the postseason.

Even though it’s just one additional game, it’s a significant one.