When your conference returns the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, the tendency is to throw out any kind of rat race for postseason awards.

After all, aren’t Michael Penix, Bo Nix and Cam Rising all just competing for 2nd-team All-Pac-12 honors?

No, college football is apt to throw a curveball or two. The bullseye is firmly in Williams’ back, and a talented field of Pac-12 offensive stars is ready to pounce o the USC quarterback if there is even an ounce of regression.

But, for now, of course, Williams reigns supreme.

Here is my ranking of Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year candidates, from least likely to most likely…

10) Oregon State QB D.J. Uiagalelei

Why not start off with a wild one? Yes, this one is supposing a lot — that Uiagalelei earns the starting nod over Ben Gulbranson and Aiden Chiles, and that he can return to the form that made him a 5-star recruit out of high school, and that Oregon State can build on its terrific 2022 season — but if those are all yes answers, don’t laugh.

Everyone loves a comeback story, and Oregon State seems well-positioned to play the role of spoiler once more, while every team will be gunning for the likes of USC, Washington and Oregon. Jonathan Smith has a really good thing going on in Corvallis, and this would likely be as much a team award as anythng.

9) UCLA RB Carson Steele

Only a couple Pac-12 running backs could have the volume to contend for OPOY honors, but Steele should be one of them. The Ball State transfer was a bellcow for the Cardinals, rushing for more than 1,550 yards and 14 touchdowns. He topped the 180-yard mark in 3 of his final 4 games, blowing past the 1,000-yard threshold for the season.

Behind what should once again be an impressive offensive line, and playing with a true freshman quarterback in Dante Moore, Steele has a chance to follow in the footsteps of Zach Charbonnet.

8) Oregon WR Troy Franklin

Why Franklin and not USC’s Dorian Singer, Mario Williams, Tahj Washington or Brenden Rice, Arizona’s Jacob Cowing or Tetairoa McMillan or Washington’s Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan or Ja’Lynn Polk?

You have the answer right there. In a conference full of top-flight receiving corps, Franklin is a clear-cut target for Bo Nix. Of course, this is a bit of a catch-22: If Franklin deserves OPOY honors, wouldn’t Nix deserve them, too? Not necessarily. We’re not too far removed from Devonta Smith winning the Heisman.

7) Arizona QB Jayden de Laura

The Wildcats are on the rise, have a talented group of wide receivers and the offense should be a bit more balanced this year. Those are all good things for de Laura, the former Pac-12 Freshman Offensive Player of the Year for Washington State. He had a very good first season for the Wildcats, but they are counting on him joining the upper echelon of Pac-12 passers this year.

It’s going to take more than just bowl eligibility, though, and even that will be a tall task for Arizona.

6) Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders

Too high? Probably. But few quarterbacks in the country can boast the kind of numbers that Sanders put up the last two years with Jackson State. He was as prolific as he was efficient, and even though the competition will be drastically better than what he faced with the Tigers, he looked mighty good in the spring.

Here’s the one thing we know: Coach Prime is going to do his best to make his son look good. And he’s going to do his best to make his son make him look good. If all that looks good, Boulder is going to be rocking.

5) Utah QB Cam Rising

Another big if, but should Rising return healthy from a torn ACL for the start of the season — which opens with an all-too-important rematch against Florida — then he could play himself into the conversation once more.

The 2021 all-conference 1st team selection played better last year with 3,034 passing yards and 26 touchdowns — up from 2,493 yards and 20 scores the previous year — but another similar leap might not be enough.

He’ll have to truly be the centerpiece of the offense, which isn’t always typical in Kyle Whittingham’s offense.

4) Oregon RB Bucky Irving

Unlike his teammate Franklin, who does not have much competition as Oregon’s clear-cut No. 1, Irving will compete for touches with Noah Whittington and Jordan James. But even if Irving sees a slight bump in usage, we know how dangerous he is with the ball in his hands.

How dangerous?

Irving had more than 40 explosive plays last year and had 1,058 yards on 156 carries, nearly averaging 7 yards per. He’ll need to double — or triple — his 5 rushing touchdowns to be in contention.

3) Oregon QB Bo Nix

Nix had a smashing first season with the Ducks, passing for 3,593 yards and 29 touchdowns with just 7 interceptions. But where he made the real impact was in Oregon’s running game, as he had more than 500 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns.

But his offensive coordinator, Kenny Dillingham, is now Arizona State’s head coach. Nix had his two best collegiate seasons so far under Dillingham. Can he reach the same heights under Will Stein?

2) Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.

While the No. 1 player on this list — Caleb Williams — was a known quantity when he arrived at USC, and thus his 1st-year success was unsurprising, Penix’s play came from nowhere. He led the country in passing yards per game at 357.0 and tossed 31 touchdowns with just 8 interceptions.

Why does he outrank Nix and Rising in the rankings?

Washington might just field the finest trio targets in the conference, if not the country. In Year 2 of Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb’s offense and with Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk all back, the sky is the limit.

1) USC QB Caleb Williams

If not for Williams, Penix would be a shoo-in for OPOY honors. But you’re not going to unseat the reigning Heisman winner. Not without a fight.

Can Williams run it back? That’s one of the biggest questions in the country entering the 2023 season. He’ll have to approach his statistics from last year — 4,537 passing yards and 42 touchdowns and 382 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns — to have a chance. But with another offseason to soak up better offensive understanding from a genius like Lincoln Riley, he just might do it.