Gold: Predicting the first loss for every Pac-12 team
As much as we’d all love to see it, by simple arithmetic, no Pac-12 team will finish undefeated.
That means most — if not every team — will lose at some point this year. And because I don’t see any team emerging from a crowded field of conference contenders at the top, that does indeed mean all 12 fan bases should prepare for sorrow at some point.
Here’s a look at my projection for each Pac-12 team’s first losses…
Arizona — Week 2, at Mississippi State
Jedd Fisch has made it clear on the recruiting trail that the Wildcats have some swagger. And the gambler in me wants to think Arizona is primed for another big leap. But the Cats still feel a year away from truly contending on the road against an SEC team coming off a 9-win season.
Still, this one should be fun.
Last year, the Bulldogs won in Tucson, 39-17, behind 313 yards and 4 touchdown passes by Will Rogers. While much has changed for Mississippi State since their last matchup — most significantly, of course, the passing of Mike Leach (RIP, Pirate) — Rogers is back in the saddle and appears primed for All-SEC-type season.
Can Jayden de Laura stack up to that? He was picked off 3 times in last year’s matchup and sacked twice, as he had little room to operate. That caused him to struggle downfield as his long completion went for 30 yards. If his progression is accelerated with an impressive wide receiver corps led by Jacob Cowing, the Cats can contend. If he throws 3 picks again, count them out early.
Arizona State — Week 2, vs. Oklahoma State
After flat-lining in Stillwater in a 34-17 Oklahoma State win last season, the Sun Devils lost another 3 straight, with Herm Edwards laid off in the middle of the slump.
Enter Kenny Dillingham to save the day. Just not this day. While ASU should be improved, they are still sifting through the wreckage of the Edwards era. Like their rival, Arizona, the Sun Devils still feel a ways away from truly competing with a strong team from a better conference.
It’ll start with shutting down the Oklahoma State offense. Dominic Richardson had 131 rushing yards and a score and Spencer Sanders passed for 268 yards and 2 scores in the Cowboys’ win last year, as they outscored ASU, 17-0, in the 2nd quarter.
Cal — Week 2, vs. Auburn
Cal was well on its way to a 3-0 start last season — and just as close to sending Notre Dame to an 0-3 start — when the wheels came off early in the 4th quarter. The Irish won the 4th quarter, 10-0, to complete the comeback win over the Bears.
Cal would go on to finish 4-8 on the year, the Bears’ 3rd-consecutive season under .500.
The problem is, Auburn is in a similar position to Notre Dame last year. Like the Irish and Marcus Freeman, the Tigers are breaking in a new head coach, Hugh Freeze, who takes over for Bryan Harsin. Granted, ND was in a much better position last year than Auburn was after the Harsin debacle, but this is still not a fun Week 2 game for the Bears.
Colorado — Week 1, at TCU
Sorry to burst Deion Sanders’ bubble, but it’s not going to be a soft opening for Coach Prime and his new-look Buffaloes. While Colorado will undoubtedly be improved — and in a hurry, after the trash fire that was the Karl Dorrell era — the improvement probably won’t start in Week 1.
Opening the season with the defending national champion? That’s not exactly rolling out the red carpet.
It sure will be must-watch television, though, because it’s not just Prime and his coaching style on display, but an entirely new Buffs squad. Shedeur Sanders? Travis Hunter? Let’s see it!
Oregon — Week 7, at Washington
Last year’s first loss for the Ducks was pretty easy to peg: Week 1 against defending national champion Georgia. And what happened? A 49-3 Bulldogs win.
Oregon mercifully does not have to dance with the Dawgs this year, but it’s another pack that could plague the Ducks this year. After Washington pulled off a huge — and rare — win at Oregon last year, things won’t get much easier for the Ducks this season, with the Huskies returning arguably the top trio of passing targets in the Power 5.
Whichever team wins this matchup has the inside track to the Pac-12 title game.
Oregon State — Week 12, vs. Washington
Yes, I expect the the Beavers to be the last team standing.
Week 5 is the first real test for the Beavers. Get through a home matchup against the Utes, and Oregon State could be 10-0 heading into a torturous two-step with Washington and Oregon.
But the dream season ends abruptly against the Huskies, who beat the Beavers, 24-21, last year, Oregon State’s lone defeat after a 3-2 start.
As much as I like what Jonathan Smith is doing in Corvallis, the Washington offense will prove too much.
Stanford — Week 2, at USC
Stanford starts Troy Taylor’s debut season with a trip to Hawai’i, but this is not a leisure vacation. Launching the Cardinal into a new era is key for Taylor and the coaching staff, who take over for a once-successful David Shaw.
Stanford has fallen on tough times in recent years, but unlike its Week 2 opponent, USC, it’s hard to fathom a 7-win improvement in Year 1, like the Trojans pulled off last season under Lincoln Riley. USC hosts the Cardinal in this early season matchup, with Caleb Williams back and hungry to prove his 2022 Heisman campaign was no fluke.
Williams had 341 yards and 4 touchdowns on 20-of-27 passing last year, guiding the Trojans to touchdowns on their first 5 possessions. The opportunistic USC defense also had three takeaways in Stanford’s first 4 possessions to take control early. The Cardinal made a game of it with a 14-0 4th quarter, but by then it was too little, too late.
UCLA — Week 4, at Utah
Many prognosticators are pegging 5-star recruit Dante Moore to be Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s heir apparent as UCLA starting quarterback, and if that does indeed happen, he’ll have a chance to build some momentum early.
Can he win at San Diego State in Week 2, if, in fact, he does earn the gig over Ethan Garbers and Collin Schlee? That will be a tough test, though with a strong pass rush and a good offense, I’m picking UCLA to win.
Two weeks later, Utah should prove too much for the Bruins at home in Salt Lake City. Last year, UCLA pulled off the 42-32 win over the No. 11 Utes, but that was at home and with a long-time starting quarterback at the helm. Supposing the Bruins go with the wunderkind at QB, he’s still a bit too young to head into the house of the 2-time defending conference champion and pull out a win.
But, boy, if he does…
USC — Week 7, at Notre Dame
Trojans fans, avert your eyes.
USC’s second-half schedule is absolutely brutal — after one of the softest first halves in all of college football — so I’m expecting the pain to start early.
After a run of San Jose State, Nevada and Stanford at home, trips to Arizona State and Colorado and a home game against Arizona, the Trojans tackle the Fighting Irish in Week 7, then take on Utah, Washington, Oregon and UCLA in the season’s final 5 weeks.
So why Notre Dame? I’m expecting a huge year out of former Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman, and I also expect the Trojans to be a bit soft after 6 cushy wins to start the season.
Utah — Week 5, at Oregon State
This one is easily the toughest to peg.
If Cam Rising is healthy, the Utes could very well could be 4-0 entering a big matchup with Oregon State or 6-0 heading to USC.
If Rising is not healthy or operating anywhere short of 100 percent, the Utes could be 1-3 out of the gate.
As it stands, my prediction is based on a healthy Rising still falling to a still rising Beavers squad in Week 5. Why am I so high on Oregon State? Because the Beavers are following a similar pattern as Whittingham and Utes, building from strength from the inside out.
Washington — Week 10, at USC
I saw enough out of Washington last year to be fully on the Kalen DeBoer bandwagon, but it’s not going out on a limb to think the Huskies are undefeated heading into November. But once they hit November…uh oh: USC, Utah, Oregon State, Washington State.
This, of course, accounts for wins over Boise State, Michigan State and Oregon, whom the Huskies defeated last year in Autzen Stadium in a 37-34 thriller.
But after missing the Trojans and the Heisman-winning Williams last season, Washington squares off with the buzzsaw that is the USC offense on Nov. 4. This could be the game of the year, with Michael Penix Jr. looking to knock Williams from his perch.
Washington State — Week 2, vs. Wisconsin
After Wazzu waltzed into Wisconsin and delivered the Badgers a defensive beatdown last season, perhaps I’m being a bit too optimistic about the impact Luke Fickell will have on his new program. The former Cincinnati head coach lifted the Bearcats to great heights before heading to Wisconsin, and he should make an instant impact on the Badgers.
Meanwhile, Washington State lost some key pieces from last year’s team, and though I’ve been impressed by what Jake Dickert has done in short order in the Palouse, a second straight win over the Badgers would be a stretch.