Gold: Pac-12 NBA Draft Preview -- all hopes on UCLA's Jaquez, Bailey
What is projected to be an entirely disappointing NBA Draft for the Pac-12 kicks off on Thursday at Brooklyn’s Barclays Center, with potentially one or even zero picks for the west coast’s premier conference.
If a pair of UCLA Bruins are not selected in the 1st round in Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Amari Bailey, the Pac-12 would very likely be shut out of the 1st round for the first time since 1986. That’s an amazing stat, made all the more amazing by the fact the league was one of the Draft’s top breeding grounds just a half-decade ago, when the Pac-12 had back-to-back No. 1 picks in 2017-2018 (Washington’s Markelle Fultz and Arizona’s Deandre Ayton).
My, how the mighty have fallen since then.
Here’s a look at the Pac-12’s likeliest draft picks…
UCLA F Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Jaquez is a case study in returning for a senior season. After three very, very good years with the Bruins — helping lead them to the Final Four as a sophomore defensive leader and improving his offensive game as a junior, earning first-team all-conference honors after averaging 13.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.1 steals per game — Jaquez sent his stock soaring with a terrific senior year in which he just about threw UCLA on his back.
Jaquez was remarkably consistent throughout his career, scoring in double figures 94 times, but he really turned it on last season, averaging a team-best 17.8 points and 8.2 rebounds — marks that ranked 2nd and 5th in the league, respectively — while scoring in double figures in 34 of 37 games. Named the Lute Olson National Player of the Year by CollegeInsider.com and a consensus second-team All-American, Jaquez hit another gear as the season wore on. He scored 20-plus in eight of his final 13 games, including a 24-point, 8-rebound showing in the team’s Round of 32 win over Northwestern and 29 points and 11 boards in an epic showdown with Gonzaga’s Drew Timme in the Bruin’s season-ending Sweet 16 loss.
That game capped off a tremendous career for nothing short of a UCLA great: He finished his career ranked 8th on the career scoring list with 1,802 points, 8th on the career steals list with 178 steals and 11th on the school’s career rebounding list with 842 rebounds.
It is that combination of consistency, tenacity and productivity that has Jaquez going as early as pick No. 19 in some mock drafts.
It is Jaquez’ rather limited athleticism that has him going as low as No. 35 in other, but after earning a Green Room invitation to attend the draft in person with his family, it’s a safe assumption he’ll go somewhere in the late 1st.
Projection: Early-to-mid-20s
NEWS: UCLA wing Jaime Jaquez Jr. has received a green room invite to attend the NBA Draft with his family, a source told ESPN. pic.twitter.com/Rmq5vZhu0A
— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) June 20, 2023
UCLA G Amari Bailey
It feels like 2 more weeks of the college basketball season could have locked up a 1st-round selection for the talented UCLA freshman.
Beginning with a 26-point outburst against Colorado in the Pac-12 Tournament quarterfinals, Bailey scored 14 points or more in 5 of 6 contests to close the season, including 19 points against the Zags in the Sweet 16. In fact, it was Bailey’s clutch 3-pointer with 13 seconds left that put the Bruins up 1 against Gonzaga, before Julian Strawther broke UCLA hearts with a 3-point dagger 6 seconds later. If not for Strawther, it would’ve gone down as one of the epic shots in Bruins history, and there have been a few of those.
Between that late-season surge and an NBA Combine effort that ranked among the best of attendees, Bailey’s stock rose throughout the draft process.
But as it stands, he’d be a slight surprise as a 1st-round pick. He has the pedigree, coming to Westwood as a 5-star prospect ranked among the top players in his class. And he had the production, finishing the season with averages of 11.2 points and 3.8 rebounds with 49.5% shooting and 39% from deep.
But does he have enough momentum?
Projection: Late 1st-early 2nd
Washington State C Mouhamed Gueye
Despite not participating in live scrimmages at the NBA Draft Combine, Gueye nonetheless impressed scouts in skill events and in his measurables. He particularly improved the fluidity of his shot, which drew praise.
Washington State's Mouhamed Gueye showed off his fluidity and improving skill level at his Pro Day at the NBA draft combine in Chicago. pic.twitter.com/gHXORsjoPa
— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) May 18, 2023
His Combine performance was enough to bump him into the second round after a standout sophomore season with the Cougars, when he averaged 14.3 points, 8.4 rebounds and a league-leading 3.36 offensive boards per game. NBA teams love specialists, and it could be Gueye’s offensive rebounding that tips the scales in his favor.
Projection: Mid-to-late 2nd
UCLA G Jaylen Clark
This is the one that stings for Mick Cronin.
Clark’s late-season injury doomed UCLA’s chances to contend for a national title, as he could have played the difference against Gonzaga and beyond. By the end of his junior season, he was considered perhaps the premier perimeter defender in college hoops, as well as a true offensive threat after boosting his production in a big way.
A backup on a talented Bruins squad as a sophomore, Clark upped his averages from 6.7 points and 3.8 rebounds in 2021-22 to 13.0 points and 6.0 rebounds in 2022-23, in addition to Naismith, NABC and Pac-12 defensive player of the year honors. Clark also led the league in steals and ranked 4th nationally with 2.6 per game.
If anything gets him into the draft, it will be that defensive acumen.
If anything keeps him from being picked, it will almost certainly be the late-season Achilles injury that cost him the final 6 games of the season.
That injury also could have caused him to return to UCLA for one more year, where he might have had a Jaquez-like improvement on the offensive end and maybe locked up a 1st-round selection. This one will eat at Cronin for a while.
Projection: Late 2nd-undrafted
Arizona F Azuolas Tubelis
I get the feeling that had Tubelis been born stateside, he may have returned for his senior season and a chance at a vaunted 20/10 stat line. Hailing from Lithuania, Tubelis is more familiar with the European leagues that will likely be in his future, as a draft selection would be a surprise.
Not because of the Wildcat star’s production, of course.
Tubelis joined Jaquez as a consensus second-team All-America after becoming just the 3rd Pac-12 player to lead the league in scoring and rebounding at 19.8 points on a stellar 57% shooting and 9.1 rebounds. That showed major improvement after playing second fiddle to Bennedict Mathurin a year prior.
But even those monster numbers likely won’t be enough to lift Tubelis into the draft.
Unless Azuolas Tubelis gets picked late in the second round, Arizona will get shut out in the 2023 NBA Draft. But it's more circumstantial than a sign that the program is in decline. https://t.co/6CwYlIxg1x
— Arizona Daily Star (@TucsonStar) June 20, 2023
Projection: Undrafted
UCLA G Tyger Campbell
The emotional lynchpin for the Bruins was a terrific floor general, ranking among UCLA all-time leaders in assists, games played, minutes played and assist-to-turnover ratio.
But after a design to get him more into scorer’s role this year flopped, it’s hard to imagine he’ll be drafted.
Not that he wasn’t terrific for the Bruins in 2022-23, earning a 3rd-straight first-team all-conference nod after averaging 13.4 points and 5.0 assists and leading the league in A/T ratio and free-throw shooting (85.6%). But there was a lot of preseason talk about Campbell becoming the team’s primary option as a Steph Curry-like gunner, and that just didn’t happen. Jaquez instead blossomed as a scorer. Campbell could get a good look in the G-League, though.
Projection: Undrafted
USC G Drew Peterson
An agile 6-9 wing with an NBA body, Peterson’s draft stock dropped a bit after an inconsistent senior year. The former Rice transfer kicked it up a notch late in the year, averaging 16.1 points in the Trojans’ final 10 games, but he averaged just 12.4 points on the year to go along with 6.2 rebounds.
His outside game could pique some team’s interest — he shot 41.2 percent from 3-point range, 4th in the conference — but he hasn’t been showing up in many two-round mock drafts.
Projection: Undrafted