Fool’s Gold: First impressions and false impressions from Week 5 in the Pac-12
After UCLA’s upset win over No. 15 Washington on Friday night, the 5-0 Bruins ascended into the Top 25 for the first time this season.
Now the Pac-12 has 5 ranked teams for the first time this year, with the Washington State Cougars just on the outside looking in as the top unranked vote-getter.
Should half the league get ranked after next week — which would happen with a Cougars upset over No. 6 USC in Los Angeles on Saturday — the promise of a Playoff berth would grow stronger by the week.
But how much of that potential is fact and how much of it is fiction? Read below.
1. Impression: Washington State has a puncher’s chance against No. 6 USC
The Cougars improved to 4-1 on Saturday with a 28-9 win over Cal, but a 44-41 loss to Oregon in Week 4 might be Washington State’s best performance of the year. The Cougars led the Ducks late in the game and let it slip away, but that does not take away from the fact that they played well.
Can they live up to that standard against the No. 6 Trojans on Saturday? It depends on how they perform up front.
Washington State had 4 sacks and harassed Jack Plummer throughout the win over the Bears, a week after they had zero sacks against Bo Nix and Oregon. Like Nix, Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams has much better legs than Plummer, so it is imperative that the Cougars contain the edge.
Verdict: First impression
2. Impression: Arizona has a puncher’s chance against No. 12 Oregon
Washington State is further along as a program than Arizona, so while it will come down to the defensive front seven for the Cougars, the Wildcats will need a complete team performance to defeat a Ducks squad that has drastically turned things around from a season-opening loss to Georgia in Atlanta.
Arizona simply doesn’t have the running game to contend with Oregon, even if the Wildcats’ passing game is soaring. Quarterback Jayden de Laura is coming off a career performance in a 484-yard, 6-touchdown showing against Colorado on Saturday. Would a repeat performance be enough to take out the Ducks?
Not with Arizona’s defense. The Wildcats are improved — but they’re not that improved.
Verdict: False impression
3. Impression: A UCLA win over No. 11 Utah puts Bruins in the top 10
Should UCLA pull off a second straight upset win over a top-12 opponent and even 1 top-10 team lose this week, the Bruins will have a realistic chance of their first top-10 ranking since 2015.
But that would be a very tall task.
The Bruins scored a huge win over No. 15 Washington at home on Friday, a convincing win that saw them go up 40-16 before surrendering two late touchdowns. That’s the good.
A 5-game losing streak to the Utes dating to 2016? That’s the bad. Kyle Whittingham has simply had Chip Kelly’s number during Kelly’s UCLA tenure, and some recent Utah injuries (Brant Kuithe) and inefficiencies (a weaker running game than a year ago) has this game up for grabs, though I still expect the Utes to pull it out.
Verdict: False impression
4. Impression: The Pac-12’s best quarterback resides in Los Angeles
After Dorian Thompson-Robinson thoroughly outplayed Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. on Friday night, the UCLA 5th-year starter vaulted to the top of the Pac-12’s passing efficiency rankings, with a rating of 171.5. Though Thompson-Robinson is averaging just 242.2 yards per game, he has been remarkably accurate and he’s been sacked just 4 times.
Meanwhile, USC’s Caleb Williams continues his terrific start for the Trojans, as he ranks 4th in the conference in passer rating and 3rd in total offense.
Both have just 1 interception, with Williams tossing 12 touchdowns and Thompson-Robinson 11. Both teams are undefeated. This is rare.
Los Angeles hasn’t been home to a pair of such highly rated quarterbacks since 2014, when USC’s Cody Kessler passed for 3,826 yards and 39 touchdowns with 5 interceptions for a passer rating of 167.1 and UCLA’s Brett Hundley passed for 22 touchdowns and 5 interceptions and finished with a 152.7 rating.
Should Thompson-Robinson’s 171.5 passer rating hold, that would mark the best by a quarterback in either program’s history.
Verdict: First impression
5. Impression: Washington’s ground game is its Achilles’ heel
The Huskies’ running game has been at best pedestrian this season and at worst a total liability, as it was on Friday night against the Bruins.
Washington had just 65 rushing yards against UCLA, with just 48 yards from top rusher Wayne Taulapapa. The poor performance sent the Huskies down to 8th in the conference in rushing yards, though they lead the league in passing yardage by such a large margin that they also maintain the lead in total offense.
But when Washington needed to move the ball against the Bruins on Friday, they couldn’t. On a crucial 3rd-and-1 midway through the 2nd quarter, Cameron Davis ran for 2 yards but a holding violation set the Huskies back. On the next play quarterback Michael Penix Jr. threw a costly interception.
The Huskies would do well to rely on its running game at Arizona State, if only to sharpen the tool. We know what Penix can do. It’s time to balance out the offense.
Verdict: First impression
6. Impression: Oregon State should make a chance at quarterback
Any chance the Beavers had against Utah was squandered early when Chance Nolan threw 2 first-quarter interceptions, including one on Oregon State’s opening drive. Both picks — each by Clark Phillipps, who added a 3rd — were egregious, and Nolan was soon pulled for third-string QB Ben Gulbranson.
That means Tristan Gebbia was skipped over, causing even more confusion for the Beavers going forward.
Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith insisted that Nolan’s removal was strictly related to injury concerns rather than poor play, but we’ve heard that song and dance before. If Nolan is injured or inefficient during the week of practice, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him get replaced. And it wouldn’t be undeserved — Nolan’s play doomed the Beavers against USC the week prior.
Verdict: False impression