ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) dropped Oregon and Washington in the national ranking after wins in Week 8, but the two PNW rivals are still viewed as the two most likely Pac-12 title winners.

The predictive model moved Oregon down four spots to No. 10 after its Week 8 win over Washington State. In fact, the Ducks dropped more in the ranking after a 38-24 conference win than it did after a three-point loss to Washington in Week 7. But Washington moved down two spots to No. 12, so the Huskies are still sitting behind the team they just beat.

Despite a 34-32 loss to Utah at home — the Trojans’ second loss in as many weeks — USC remains ahead of Utah and Oregon State in FPI’s overall ranking. The Trojans sit 17th (down two spots) while Oregon State sits 19th after a bye and Utah sits 22nd. Utah moved up one spot after the win.

Washington is still the favorite to win the Pac-12. USC saw its chance of winning the league take a serious hit in FPI’s view.

Here is the updated Pac-12 outlook from FPI:

  • Washington — 37.9% (43.4% last week)
  • Oregon — 33.6% (32.8% last week)
  • Oregon State — 10.7% (6.1% last week)
  • USC — 8.8% (15.0% last week)
  • Utah — 7.9% (2.1% last week)
  • Arizona — 0.5% (0.4% last week)
  • UCLA — 0.5% (0.2% last week)
  • Cal — 0.0%
  • Washington State — 0.0%
  • Colorado — 0.0%
  • Arizona State — 0.0%
  • Stanford — 0.0%

ESPN’s power index is also starting to fade the Pac-12 in the College Football Playoff picture. A week ago, Washington had nearly a 40% chance to make the CFP after beating Oregon. The Ducks still had a 19.4% chance to get in.

Now, after both teams won in Week 8, both saw their Playoff chances take a dive. FPI gives the Huskies a 23.6% chance to make the field now. Oregon has a 13.5% chance.

If either team is standing at the end of the season as a one- or no-loss conference champion, it remains hard to imagine the CFP selection committee being able to justify leaving the Pac-12 out again. If Washington wins out, it is in the field. If Oregon wins out, it is probably in the field.

But it is interesting to see a model that ESPN leans so heavily on start to devalue the league a bit after the only real result of consequence during the weekend was its top team winning a close game.

Here are the updated CFP odds for each team:

  • Washington — 23.6% (39.9% last week)
  • Oregon — 13.5% (19.4% last week)
  • Oregon State — 1.4% (0.9% last week)
  • Utah — 1.0% (0.3% last week)
  • USC — 0.2% (2.3% last week)