ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) thinks the Pac-12 championship race has just about become Oregon vs. the field.

After Week 5, the Ducks moved up to No. 6 in FPI’s national rankings — up one spot from last week. They’re the highest-ranked Pac-12 team. Washington remained at No. 9 while USC fell four spots down to No. 12.

FPI gives the Ducks a 46.8% chance to win the league. After losing to Oregon State last Friday, Utah has seen its title odds nearly evaporate. FPI also isn’t a believer in the 4-0 Washington State Cougars.

Here is the updated Pac-12 outlook from FPI:

  • Oregon — 46.8%
  • Washington — 24.4%
  • USC — 23.1%
  • Oregon State — 2.9%
  • Utah — 1.1%
  • UCLA — 0.9%
  • Washington State — 0.8%
  • Cal — 0.1%
  • Arizona — 0.0%
  • Colorado — 0.0%
  • Arizona State — 0.0%
  • Stanford — 0.0%

Oregon also now holds the fourth-best odds of making the College Football Playoff, according to FPI.

The predictive model gives the Ducks a 40% chance to make the CFP. That’s better than the top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs and the unbeaten Florida State Seminoles.

Washington has a 21% chance, according to the model. USC has a 14% chance.

This will ultimately get settled on the field, with each of the league’s top four teams all playing each other round-robin-style this season.

And that’ll get started in Week 7. Oregon and UW are both on byes this upcoming week. After, the Ducks head to Seattle for a top-10 matchup.