Bill Connelly’s final batch of preseason SP+ projections was released on Sunday.

USC moved up once again, now just 2.6 points behind UCLA for third in the Pac-12. Among the notable fallers, Arizona dropped below Colorado to move into last in Connelly’s preseason projections.

Here are the updated Pac-12 rankings as SP+ sees it, with national ranking in parenthesis, and each of the two previous iterations of Connelly’s projections with them. SP+ can be interpreted as how many points better or worse a team is on a neutral field than the average:

Aug. update Natl. rank May update Natl. rank Feb. release Natl. rank
Utah 16.5 12 16.6 12 16.2 14
Oregon 14.3 24 13.8 24 12.3 32
UCLA 9.8 36 9.2 41 8.4 44
Arizona State 5.8 51 9.1 42 12.4 31
Oregon State 3.8 56 6.3 50 8.0 46
USC 7.2 46 5.9 51 3.1 64
Washington 3.6 57 5.0 54 4.1 61
Washington State 0.4 69 1.0 69 1.2 70
Cal -2.0 78 -0.5 74 0.2 74
Stanford -1.0 74 -1.0 77 1.7 68
Arizona -10.5 104 -7.6 96 -6.6 99
Colorado -7.1 92 -8.1 100 -7.8 102

For anyone unsure of what Connelly’s SP+ system is, here’s how he describes it:

“SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.”

The three areas that serve as the foundation for Connelly’s numbers include returning production, recent recruiting success, and recent on-field performance. This year, the model factored incoming transfers into the returning production.

The Pac-12 season gets rolling on Thursday, Sept. 1, with Arizona State opening up against Northern Arizona. The Sun Devils have fallen 20 spots total in SP+ since the initial batch of projections came out in February of this year. That would reflect the offseason Arizona State had. A number of major contributors left the team via the transfer, but ASU’s presence as a top-60 team in Connelly’s final projections might indicate that the drastic fall-off many expect this season from ASU doesn’t happen.

USC is the biggest riser in the league, moving up a total of 18 spots from the initial projections. That, too, reflects the change that’s taken place in Los Angeles. The Trojans begin their season on Saturday, Sept. 3, against Rice at home.

You can view Connelly’s full projections for all 131 FBS teams here.