10 things I'm absolutely overreacting to after Week 7 in the Pac-12
Handed a 48-20 loss at Notre Dame to snap a 6-0 start, it’s almost impossible not to jump to conclusions about the state of the USC football program.
But we’re optimists around these parts. Why focus on the failures of the Pac-12’s preseason favorites instead of celebrating the success of Washington, which jumped into the top 5 with a win over Oregon.
Given that incredible performance, Washington leads off the 10 things I’m absolutely overreacting to after Week 7 in the Pac-12 …
10. Michael Penix Jr. locked up the Heisman … if he doesn’t fumble the ball
Caleb Williams’ uncharacteristic 3-interception game, the first of his career, was indeed shocking. But anyone who has watched his heroics behind a suspect offensive line and alongside a more-than-suspect defense had to know that USC was playing with fire forever.
Dillon Gabriel has been terrific, but Oklahoma doesn’t have the same kind of showcase games on it second-half schedule. It’s not like he can play Texas again in the regular season (though they could meet again in the Big 12 title game, just before Heisman ballots are due.)
The same can pretty much be said for Drake Maye and North Carolina, as well as Jordan Travis and Florida State. Sam Hartman has already been tagged with 2 losses, as has Jayden Daniels.
And now, given the fact that his Washington Huskies disposed of Bo Nix’s Oregon Ducks, it’s pretty clear that Michael Penix Jr. is not only in the driver seat for the Heisman Trophy, but driving away from the competition.
Against a stout Oregon defense, Penix’s threw for 308 yards and 4 touchdowns, his 4th time hitting both marks this year alone. And his Heisman moment came late in the game, not just standing tall against against a relentless Oregon pass rush despite being banged up, but architecting a 2-play, game-winning touchdown drive capped by his 2nd touchdown pass to Rome Odunze.
If the Huskies stay true, in the second half just hand Penix the Heisman.
9. Forget top 5, the Huskies deserve to be top 3 after that win
Washington has easily played the roughest schedule among the top 5 teams, and after a brief reprieve the next 2 weeks against Arizona State and Stanford, the Huskies have USC, Utah, Oregon State and Washington State to close out the year.
Simple enough: They get through they gauntlet, they deserve to be in the College Football Playoff.
For now, they already deserve to be above Michigan and Florida State.
8. Dan Lanning is an absolute hustler and I love it
The thing I love about Dan Lanning is he seems to be playing both for the near term and long term, to go for the win today and to set a standard for behavior and approach that might last the next decade or longer. This can happen when an incredibly talented young coach is courted by a forward-thinking and well-funded program, one that appears poised to thrive for the next decade and beyond.
Lanning is getting a ton of heat for the here and now, courtesy of 3 4th-down calls that ultimately failed. Had any of them succeeded – and they were all about a 50-50 proposition — Oregon wins that game and Lanning is lauded for his gun-shooter attitude.
I’m of the belief that kickers and punters have always been a bane on the existence of college football, so to me, giving the ball to Bo Nix on 4th-and-3 instead of just handing the ball to an offense that can gain about 115 yards on one play is the right call. I mean, why not? I always hit on soft 17 anyway.
7. Deion Sanders is reaping what he is sowing
I love just about everything Deion Sanders has done in short order in Boulder, from the enthusiasm he’s bought back to the city, to the concessions he’s gotten the top brass to make, to the remake of an entire roster to a 4-2 start. But that “just about” is doing some heavy lifting. Or, as Coach Prime would say, some durn heavy lifting.
I don’t love that there hasn’t been a counterbalance to his infusion of swagger into the Buffaloes style. Complacency doesn’t settle in for a well-coached team. I also don’t love how Colorado coached during the Stanford comeback. It’s not just that the Colorado players were in a position to fail on Friday. They were put there.
And now Colorado faces an uphill climb to make the postseason in Coach Prime’s debut season. What looked like an almost foregone conclusion before Friday — if, of course, the Buffaloes could pull off one 2nd-half upset — now looks like a very, very shaky proposition.
6. Troy Taylor, don’t count him out!
Well of course count him out this year, don’t be ridiculous. But that 2nd half against Colorado is what dreams — and programs — are made of. There is plenty to sell on being the anti-Colorado — humble, disciplined, focused on the verge of stoic.
What Ashton Daniels and the Stanford offense did in the 2nd half against Colorado was revelatory. Are the Buffaloes good defensively? No. Are they even competent? I’m not so sure. But a rally from 29-0 deficit behind an inexperienced quarterback, against a foreign to squad on the road? It’s pretty amazing.
Stanford is nowhere near a finished product and in fact, the rebuild has barely begun, but if you’re a Cardinal fan, you feel a whole lot better after the final 30 minutes then you did after the first 30.
5. USC is toast, and so are Caleb Williams’ Heisman chances
I hope the Trojans got a good deal on two plots, because here lies both their College Football Playoff chances as well as Williams’ Heisman campaign.
Had the Trojans kept it close in a tough game on the road in South Bend, you might think they’ve got enough to put things together. Had Williams put up decent numbers against the Fighting Irish, yeah, maybe, he could make a run.
But 3 picks?
Heisman voters were looking for any excuse not to crown him for second consecutive year. And he gave them one.
4. Arizona has arrived
Aside from what has to be a full-blown quarterback controversy on his hands, things are looking up for Jedd Fisch. Way up.
After coming this shy of upsetting both Washington and USC, the Wildcats did just get over the hump, they threw Washington State in front of the hump and backed over it twice.
The Cats still have a tough row to hoe with a bye week followed by Oregon State, UCLA, Colorado, Utah and Arizona State. But with 4 wins and a chance for at least 2 more, Arizona’s got a much-improved shot at its first bowl game in more than a half-decade.
But how in the world is he going to avoid starting Noah Fifita after the job he’s done in relief of Jayden de Laura.
3. Don’t look now, but Oregon State has turned the page
The Beavers have bounced back from a 3-point loss to Washington State in a big way. First came that absolute defensive shutdown of Utah. Then a shootout against Cal. And now, best yet, a definitive win over a peaking UCLA defense that keeps Jonathan Smith and Co. in the thick of the league race.
What else is keeping the Beavers there? DJ Uiagalelei. He’s up to 15 touchdowns with just 4 picks, setting himself up for a big second half.
2. Jake Dickert doesn’t have much time to tinker
After beating an impressive Oregon State squad to improve to 4-0, Washington State soared in the rankings. Now, after 2 straight losses, the Cougars are out of the rankings entirely.
So are they out of the running? Maybe not.
They’ve got the Pac-12 equivalent of a waltz in the park in Weeks 9-11 with Arizona State, Stanford and Cal.
But first, they travel to Autzen Stadium for a season-determining matchup. Win, and they still have a chance at big things. Lose? Well, then, uh-oh.
1. Utes find the formula against the Bears
With the Cam Rising saga continuing to linger, the Utah offense found just the right combo against Cal Saturday in a 34-14 win.
Just don’t throw it more than 20 yards and you’ll be fine.
Aside from one 41-yard completion to Munir McClain, Bryson Barnes did not hit another pass for more than 17 yards. It didn’t matter much.
The Utes ran for 317 yards and 4 scores. Safety-turned-running back Sione Vaki had more than 150 yards. What else matters?